...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Overnight, Feb 14, 2017.

  1. Overnight

    Overnight

    Guys, it is all good. As I mentioned above, the only reason it affects me is because I cannot give a clean run on the journal listing, for the benefit of people reading it. But that is not my priority.

    I could easily do a grandfathered backup cycle of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual backups. That would be 17 files total, no big deal. It's just not that important for me to bother doing it manually or scripting it.

    As for BWS being just "a teacher", you should check that attitude at the door. You might be conflating him with someone who cannot trade, so teaches instead. Nah, he's both a trader and a teacher. But he's not a teacher of trading, but a teacher of IT solutions.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2020
    #261     Feb 8, 2020
  2. Overnight

    Overnight

    BUT!!!....Can you core a apple?

     
    #262     Feb 8, 2020
    themickey likes this.
  3. Sure! How many did you want?

    upload_2020-2-9_0-53-12.png
     
    #263     Feb 9, 2020
    Overnight and themickey like this.
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    Continuing on from last entry...

    livedetail02142020.JPG

    Another slow meandering week. ATH still have my panties in a bunch and my reluctance to go long with conviction here in nose-bleed territory. The YM trade really chafed my ass on the timing of it, because I went long at it's ATH right before it decided to tank, at that moment! On most other evenings, it would have ended up higher as the night goes on! lol!

    By the way...Regarding that database issue...For years this is how I have been doing my weekly backups on NT7...

    ninjabackupss.JPG

    I recall now that early on I had been doing it with all checkboxes marked, and it took frickin' forever. And the only corruption issue I kept encountering was the NT7 crash on loading workspaces, due to chart data getting corrupted. So I thought, well, I don't need to back-up all that crap just to restore a corrupt workspace, especially if the chart data is causing a failed workspace load, so I settled on those options and would manually clear the cache and tick data from the folders manually

    Meanwhile, it's the Database option that would have preserved the trade data. It simply folds the .sdf file into the .ntbk file. The other boxes are what caused the gigantor and time-consuming backup files...Replay, trace files and historical CHART data.

    Oi! I simply forgot about that trade history option, because when I open up the backup window I would automatically just click Run Backup. Years of tunnel vision. Now that the database file has gone corrupt on me twice recently, I'll keep the DB option checked going forward.
     
    #264     Feb 14, 2020
    Snuskpelle likes this.
  5. Overnight

    Overnight

    ...And then the Covid came. Update since last trades. Sorry it has been a while, but you'll see the folly here...

    juidatejult2020.JPG juidatejult2020a.JPG juidatejult2020b.JPG juidatejult2020c.JPG juidatejult2020d.JPG juidatejult2020e.JPG juidatejult2020f.JPG juidatejult2020g.JPG juidatejult2020h.JPG

    Buy at a peak and sell near the bottom and this is what you get. March killed me, because I did not follow my plan. Just hold and roll. Easy, right?

    Hell, I had no idea what this pandemic had in store for the markets, especially on the NQ, but fuck me. Hell of a recovery. As for the rest? Well, this is the real problem I am having. Take a huge loss, and then dick around in micros.

    @sstheo I mentioned to you months ago that I would explain to you why I am a perma-bull with my next journal update. Well, there's not much to be said here. You can see why. If I had just held onto the swing method by getting back in at the lows, through a roll, the losses would have recovered.

    My last mini trade was on April 8th. If I had just gone back to minis on the day-trading side, I'd have recovered the micro-long swing losses.

    On the other hand, if I had been on those swing longs on the minis, I would have been wiped out. 6 of one, half-dozen, etc.

    As an aside, trade #51 is a problematic entry. The NQ did not jump 700+ points in 34 minutes. It is somehow intertwined with entry number 49. Thus the journaling details of NT7 persists, but the totals are correct in the end.

    And by the way...

    The following shows why win rate means absolute dick.

    juidatejult2020summarywinrate.JPG


    89% is bollocks when you have 89 percent piker BS profit trades, and 11% man-balls loser trades. I'd @ a certain user here on it, but I am sure they will find this.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2020 at 7:03 PM
    comagnum likes this.
  6. "There are four possible outcomes in trading: large gain, small gain, small loss, large loss. Eliminate the last scenario by always using stops, and you will be successful over the long term."

    I don't recall where I read that, but it seems apropos. :)

    Glad to see you posting in this journal again, ON!
     
    themickey likes this.
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    This is what has been going on in my head after watching myself lose money after each pullback...Because I think that the next one is "the ONE". You know, the start of the real bear market where we melt down for a few years, and when rolling will just lead to loss after loss each quarter.

    Here's the current deal on the NASDAQ...

    nqforward.JPG


    Mother fucker. Well, when that shit started happening in March I bailed, because the following is what I fear was going to happen. I mean, we're in recession! The world is shut down!

    nqbackward.JPG

    That slow grind down has not happened, not really. Not to the tune of 35% over a long period of time.

    What will it take for the markets to drop 40-60% over 2-3 years? That is what I fear, and why I have not stuck to the rolling plan.

    When will the "zero risk" become "real risk"?

    One of these days, it has to happen, right?

     
  8. ph1l

    ph1l

    It looks like your largest losses were in trades held for about three weeks instead of the several-minute holding time of most of the rest of the trades.
    upload_2020-7-12_22-40-18.png

    Why did you leave the trades with losses of $3874.00, $4350.00, and $5515.50 open for so long?
     
  9. Overnight

    Overnight

    The real question to answer is, why did I close them in the first place? Specifically the two June contracts. Why did I close them when I had 3 months left to go until expiration? After all, at the time of their expiration, they were 300 points into profit. It's all about the psycho brain shit.

    Maddening shit I tell you.
     
    comagnum likes this.
  10. notagain

    notagain

    Looks like, if the trend is strong enough you don't need a stop loss. Could you take a small loss, then get back in as the trend continues. Patience has to re-adjust for each timeframe.