Which translates to: IQ47 likes the polls that say what he wants to believe. And you wonder why you have so little credibility here.
2 polls from mid April 2008.ABC/Washington Post poll has Obama +5.Rasmussen has McCain +7...How did that turn out for Rasmussen fans
The reason they don't use "likely" voters now is that it costs a lot more money than polls of "registered" voters. They need larger sample sizes, many more questions, more people to work on the poll, etc. They also have to make adjustments for areas where people register in one party and are more likely to vote for another (primarily in the south where it's quite significant). "Likely" voter polling, when done correctly, is much more complex and more expensive, but also yields the most accurate election predictions -- that's why they do it. This early in the game there are still many undecided voters, and even some voters who will switch their vote after they say they're decided. So it probably isn't worth the cost/effort to do polls of likely voters when there's still so much slack in the system. About 60 days before the election, you'll start to see an abundance polls of likely voters. These are the ones to watch.
no we are covering ground I already covered. Gallup said they weighted the survey, but they did not reveal how it was weighted. Therefore, we suspect it is b.s. we just do not know how much the pile weighs.
Another poll just showed up on Real Clear Politics, this one is from Reuters and it shows Obama+4 with a 9 point skew to the democrats which really means Romney +4-5. Im actually starting to think Romney might be able to pull this off....
By every historical precedent Obama should be far ahead of Romney at this point but he isn't. I'm inclined to agree with you that he might pull it off.
Why do they put time in these polls? I remember Sharon Angle killing Reid in Nevada n the polls and then election day, she was quite embarrassed. It doesn't say where the polls were conducted. Maybe they asked more people in Texas or Alabama in that poll. In reality, it just comes down again to a few states. It's going to come down to Ohio and Florida again. If Obama wins one of those, then most likely he'll be re-elected. If they want to do a poll, just poll those two states and that will tell you who will win. Anyone wanna wager over who wins? I'm not taking Romney.
I agree, all polls are useless until the Republican Nominee is named officially and the battle between the two is joined.
This was an excellent post. Yes, it will be a barn burner, so don't waste time on election night staying up. We won't know until the next day. Obama must carry Ohio or Florida. The dems are counting on Ohio and they will make their stand there. Msnbc is useful in that regard, if you know how to mine data. The attack is that Obama will be attacking in the MidWest. I live in Peoria, and while Illinois is not in play, I have my ear to the ground better here. Right now, Mittens has still not shaken the one percenter thing. If he cannot do this by Nov., the entire MidWest, including Missou, will go to Obama. There is no defeating that. Please bookmark this post.