Nikkei was down 7% last night. I was just thinking how impossible that would be for the US markets, as soon as the selling kicks in to overdrive they would halt all systems... Nikkei was up over 400 points earlier now down close to 200. Now thats volatility! We need some that here. By the way another guy Craig Johnson was on CNBC tonight touting spx to 2000 by 2014! Everyone is getting more bullish than the next!
this is a perfect clear indication that the top is in and we're now heaing south. and volatility generally picks up at top when it's taking a turn. so all the signs indicate we're going down from here. but then again no one really knows what the fishermen's plan are today.
Are we going to see deja vu all over again today? ES futures down 10 this morning... a little selling on the open with some volume then a float back up to green on low volume today? Any thoughts?
in last leg up starting in nov, we can see 4 smaller uptrends with corresponding shakeouts. Last uptrend is the steepest. From my statistical database, buying now is a high risk low reward scenario. I would use stops if you keen to buy.
i made a joke bet this morning that the dow will go positive and close down. i have this theory that the computer trading programs from 1030 to 3 move the market is the direction of the trend each day to extend the rally. the computers play for fractions of a cent and go home flat so no risk to them. when the trend turns negative and market drops they will have hearings in congress about computer trading making the markets go down. i don't mind the buy the dips play anymore my feeling is if the market breaks down there is going to be a lot of longs at the top. if i am wrong i am wrong. it won't be the first or last time that's for sure. the market can just have crazy money and will go up to the moon i don't know the answers its all a game.
now you know why so many hedge funds who been in the business for decades closed down over the past year. this is no longer a free market. it's become a political tool. japan is down 10% in two days. they call it a CORRECTION!! europe is down 3-4% over the past two days. US almost flat. so once we see a 10% drop next week it will be considered a correction! I wouldn't be surprised at all if the markets go down 10-20% next week.