And so it begins...

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by Maverick1, Nov 10, 2018.

  1. Maverick1

    Maverick1

    slice and dice however you want, vast majority do not have a sustainable edge (which is the only true definition of edge, you can't perform for 5 years and then crap for 5 years and say I had an edge for the first 5...) and are hiding behind the 'uncorrelated returns' defense. Just wait for the Fed to blow this economy up (which they have begun to do) and you'll see what happens to that beauty, ain't seen nothing yet...

    https://funds.aqr.com/total-returns

    worth doing a double-take on those expenses too, btw...
     
    #11     Nov 10, 2018
  2. sle

    sle

    Well, that's true about almost every style out there, be it long-short, global macro or anyone else. The guys that do well consistently are usually pretty small and exploit a variety of capacity constrained opportunities, once they get big they lose their edge.
     
    #12     Nov 10, 2018
    ironchef, fan27 and dealmaker like this.
  3. JSOP

    JSOP

    Like I said many times before, all trading system based on analysis of numbers, math or data all go out of the door in the time of fundamental changes!! If tomorrow the Fed announces that it's increasing the interest rate to 10%, no matter how perfectly the model based on analysis of numbers and data predicts that the market is going up, it's going to fail; it's going to fail miserably. In fact we would all be in trouble if they didn't fail because that would mean that the market is not efficient that somehow that price at t to t+1 does not follow a random walk and there is a way to accurately predict it besides insider trading. The failure of these "quants" is precisely the proof that the market is efficient. Nobody is correct every single time.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2018
    #13     Nov 11, 2018
  4. There was a recent story about how an "100% AI" managed fund had outperformed the SP by a couple of percent over the past year. Could be that's a coming thing... and might make some money managers obsolete.
     
    #14     Nov 11, 2018
  5. sle

    sle

    You don't think these people understand that markets are non-stationary and that market regimes could potentially kill their alphas?
     
    #15     Nov 11, 2018
  6. Maverick1

    Maverick1

    Did LTCM understand?
     
    #16     Nov 11, 2018
  7. sle

    sle

    Of course they did, it's a very scientific way of thinking about the world. That was not their problem at all - it's not like they lost their alpha all at once. Pretty much every one of their trades was a money maker in the long run. In fact, people still do the same trades except with a bit less flare.

    They failed primarily because they took on too much risk, were crowding their own positions and scared the sh*t out of the counterparties. The resulting feedback loop was vicious (and great for those of us who manager to get involved at the right time).
     
    #17     Nov 11, 2018
    ironchef and ajacobson like this.
  8. @sle when are you doing a tutorial
     
    #18     Nov 11, 2018
  9. sle

    sle

    so others can be as ignorant as I am? :D
     
    #19     Nov 12, 2018
  10. JSOP

    JSOP

    I don't think most people do otherwise they wouldn't be so frustrated when their "edge" based on their quant analysis is challenged.
     
    #20     Nov 12, 2018
    sss12 and sle like this.