the dems are worried about romney not paul. romney is the only sensible republican. intrade gives paul a 5% chance of beating obama. would you invest in this stock? http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326
Thats because he only has a 7-8% chance of winning the primary, if he was to win the primary he goes to 30-40% by default, as does any one of the republican candidates, simply because Obama is running on weakness. Romney is only 30% chance to win the presidency, and its pretty much a foregone conclusion he will win the primary, but thats because he still hasnt won the primary. If he wins he will be at 50% on Intrade.
Most polls indicate that around 70% of his supporters won't vote for anyone else. They will write him in even if he does not run under a third party. Speaking of which, we have a wager about this don't we?
I'll on record and say that Ron Paul wins Iowa and will never be heard from again in another state. I hate to agree with Vhehn, but he is right. The christian conservatives run Iowa and they love Ron Paul. What is more shocking in my view is that a mormon is getting 20% of the vote. Romney is a lock to win this thing and I'll bet anyone who wants to take the other side. Giuliani got like 1% of the Iowa vote when he ran as a moderate in 2008. The fact that Romney is getting 20% speaks volumes.
Indeed it does; it is indicative of the media campaign against Ron Paul. What speaks louder, imho, is that in spite of the blatant smears and marginalization (which has been well documented at this point), Ron Paul's numbers continue to grow. As to your predictions...well...you were one of the loudest voices suggesting Ron Paul is a non factor in this race. Care to revise that assertion?
Could of sworn it was you. You said there was no way he'd run third party and I said he would (if he didn't get the nod). Is that not ringing a bell?
i think i see what might happen. ron paul might win a state or two keeping his hopes just enough alive that, since this is his last shot due to his age,he will run as a 3rd party. he is not a republican team player. they will have a hard time buying him off. you know what that means to the republicans. i think they are shaking in their boots over that prospect.
I think Paul will be a non factor in the primary yes. He is not polling well in NH or SC. Or should say as well. Iowa will not be a factor in this race in my opinion. I would love to be proven wrong. But I'm not speaking with the emotional attachment you have to Paul.