And just like that Europe's Debt Crisis Is About to End!!!!!!

Discussion in 'Economics' started by S2007S, Apr 29, 2010.

  1. S2007S


    And just like that the next debt crisis was over. Amazing isn't it. Everytime a country is on the brink of another crisis it's fixed and forgotten about. I have come to the conclusion the word failure doesn't exist any longer. Keeping the entire global system propped up is the only way they know how to fix crisis after crisis after crisis.

    Commentary: Europe's Debt Crisis Is About to End | April 29, 2010 | 05:57 AM EDT
    With the likes Nouriel Roubini, Jim Rogers and George Soros predicting a disastrous default by Greece and others in the euro zone, the contrarian in me has to ask if they could be very wrong.

    Sources from the City of London who would not go on the record have told me this week that Greek debt is currently a screaming buy.

    They believe huge profits will be made for those holding Greek paper when Germany, the IMF and ECB outline a new rescue package that will convince investors they are serious about drawing a line in the sand on the sovereign debt crisis.

    Rumors of a European TARP moment could yet be unfounded but with Merkel now serious about getting to grips with the crisis, investors who stay short Greek debt over the weekend could be scrambling to reverse their positions on Monday morning.

    Officials at Greece's debt agency did not respond to CNBC requests for comments.

    Fears over the long-term health of the euro zone remain high and it is difficult to argue with those who see the possibility of some members exiting the euro on a long term view.

    Adam Cole, the Global Head of FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, is a euro bear and thinks we could hit $1.10 or $1.15 versus the dollar over the medium term but suggests an announcement on Greece this weekend could offer temporary respite for the market.

    Given structural problems facing the euro zone, yields could bounce back from record highs but once they do, investors should sell again, Cole said.

    Nouriel Roubini tells CNBC that Greece is just the tip of the iceberg and a major debt crisis is going to see members of the euro zone default.

    "Suppose you have a disorderly collapse of Greece, two things happen. Financial institutions holding Greek debt, mostly in Europe, will have massive losses," Roubini said.

    "Secondly, a contagion from Greece to Portugal to Spain to Italy to Ireland will have a domino effect. Eventually, debt increases and risk aversion is going to drive down the asset prices globally," he added.

    What I think Roubini is missing is that Trichet, Merkel and Strauss-Khan are well aware of this threat and must be working on a package that will counter it in a credible way.

    Trichet in particular has learned over the last three years how to manage market expectations, having dealt with the collapse of much of Europe's banking industry and the consequences of the collapse of non euro zone members like Iceland and Latvia.

    What the Big Players Are Doing

    Whether they can convince private investors to come back into the market is another matter. Pimco, the US fund specialized in investing in bonds, announced a while ago that it will not touch new Greek debt.

    "Unbeknownst to the ECB, over the past 3-4-5 years, Greece, Spain and Portugal have been borrowing like bandits and now the problem is that somebody has got to repay that debt and there are very few willing buyers," Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC.

    "The only willing buyers basically are the ECB and the EU in specific, as well as the IMF. The private market is still saying hands off," Gross added.

    Pimco's wait-and-see position has been a very wise move over the last two weeks since the bond giant said it would not take up a proposed dollar bond auction by the Greeks, which has since been shelved.

    Simon Derrick from Bank of New York Mellon agrees that Greece has a fundamental problem.

    "The problem remains that Greece needs to regain its competitiveness that it has lost in the past decade, and do it without having a currency that can take at least part of the strain or control over their own monetary policy," Derrick explained.

    "While I don't doubt the government's willingness to tackle this issue, it's a remarkably difficult task that they face. I think I would rather let someone else take the risk," he added.

    Sitting on the fence over the next few days though could see you miss out on big profits if Merkel, Trichet and Strauss-Khan get their act together. Hold that position over the long-term and you could be sorry.
  2. Greece's financial woes are due to the public sector employees making about TWICE what the private sector makes. (Ring a bell with anybody?)

    They haven't effectively addressed the above (neither has the USA), so this bailout will only buy them time until their next crisis.

    This business of government workers making twice as much as those who pay their salaries.. plus the public sector has better health care, vacation, and retirement benefits... all guaranteed by the private sector workers (who, BTW, have no such guarantees for their own benefits.)

    Government... what a SOCIAL SCAM... Makes Madoff look like a piker.
  3. Lethn


    Anyone else remember Jim Cramer saying the exact same thing about Goldman Sachs?

    The only difference is here we don't have a Jon Stewart over in Europe to call him out on his bullshit.
  4. TGregg


    The rationalizations and willing, even aggressive self deceptions that continue are truly amazing. We're living the next chapter of Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds. One cannot have one's cake and eat it too. One cannot spend more than one has for very long.

    If the major countries of the world do not reign in spending, the ultimate end is unavoidable no matter how many statements of support are drafted nor how many newly minted notes are released.
  5. If the major countries of the world do not reign in spending, the ultimate end is unavoidable no matter how many statements of support are drafted nor how many newly minted notes are released.

    Someone somewhere has another trick up their sleeve.

    Just to editorialize, after 911 I could not imagine what the fed would do when the low interest rates and consumer spending hit the crapper, at the time it seemed unsustainable, what would the FED do next. There we are with the FED bailouts, I never seen that coming, I didn't know what the plan was but I never thought it was a bailout.

    Is a bailout the last stop? Maybe we haven't seen nothing yet.
  6. If the crisis gets any worse, the Dow might hit 12k by memorial day.
  7. lol
  8. lrm21


    Germans are not going to write a blank check to the greeks

    the austerity measures are dead on arrival

    I predict another few weeks of back and forth and then BAM Greece leaves the Euro
    they can issue there own money set a peg and pull an argetina
  9. Illum


    "Sources from the City of London who would not go on the record have told me this week that Greek debt is currently a screaming buy."

    Good God...
  10. Greece should do the right thing and state that she would not be a hostage to her debt. Default and start with a clean slate.
    #10     Apr 29, 2010