weekly charts suggest that we are either in the early bear or in the early bull. in both case the bottoms took longer to form.
yes, out of 5 bottoms only two were NOT sharp turnarounds just like today. not sure if these similarities are meaningful. maybe somebody will chime in with their insight.
We are going to make new lows. The economic outlook is terrible. The markets will decline as earnings decline and co's go bankrupt. No need to own or buy stocks long right here. Wait.
Look at the SP 500 chart. There is nothing to support it if we break the 800 level (*80 on the SPY chart) We have been in a range between the 800s and 1000 level, very volatile range. I would not be suprised to see SP 500 touch 400, if we break 800. All in less than a month. So, all you Cowboy's who make your millions here on ET can jump right in and get long. Let your party begin. With the historic economic decline and stock market records, I say I let you "Smart" ET traders , the braver, trigger the eventual reversal. I will jump in later, after your dust has settled and your capital is wiped out. low Risk tollerence and good Risk Managment Skills are key to the future of surviving the Obama/Economic New world order that is upon us. But there are the Obama fans, who believe that his "Admin" signals a change. The biggest one day election rally of 4%, died once the true economic outlook came to light, over the Obama Victory. The biggest two day loss in the SP 500 History, 10% followed the OBAMA "Save the world" rally of 4%. Hummm? Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Nov 3 10:00 AM Construction Spending Sep -0.3% -0.8% -0.8% 0.3% Nov 3 10:00 AM ISM Index Oct 38.9 43.0 42.0 43.5 Nov 4 12:00 AM Auto Sales Oct - 4.5M NA 4.3M Nov 4 12:00 AM Truck Sales Oct - 5.5M NA 5.3M Nov 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Sep - -1.0% -0.8% -4.0% Nov 5 8:15 AM ADP Employment Oct - - -100K -8K Nov 5 10:00 AM ISM Services Oct - 47.0 47.0 50.2 Nov 5 10:35 AM Crude Inventories 11/01 - NA NA NA Nov 6 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/01 - 475K 476K 479K Nov 6 8:30 AM Productivity -Prel Q3 - 1.0% 1.0% 4.3% Nov 7 8:30 AM Average Workweek Oct 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.6 Nov 7 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Oct 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Nov 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Oct -240K -200K -200K -284K Nov 7 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Oct 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% Nov 7 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Sep - - -3.4% 7.4% Nov 7 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep -0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% Nov 7 11:30 AM Pending Home Sales Sep -4.6% - -3.4% 7.5% Nov 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Sep $6.9B $5.0B $0.0B -$6.3B (Source: Yahoo Finance , November 7, 2008.) So,how many of you "Clowns on ET" actually make money, who actually pay the AMT tax? Who may be in the top % of taxation soon to be Obama's 39.9% rule, possible capital gains tax of 20%, dividen tax of between 10% and 39%? Or are most of you the "freeloaders", parasites, the "Collective" who hide behind the mask of "capitalist"?
Eventually only one thing determines a markets' position, the value perceived or otherwise of the instruments that comprise that market. If you take the long held view that the market is 6 months ahead, we still have a large problem. Until we get a solid price on the still declining assets that will have a dramatic effect on earnings going forward, this market remains bearish. At this point we still don't know who owns this garbage, much less what it's worth and no one seems in any hurry to clarify this damage. The problems this is already starting to cause in the municipalities haven't been mentioned, it's a very widespread problem. We even have some saying the problems don't exist, obviously they aren't equipped to read a balance sheet. The bottom line is even the govt. will have trouble keeping this propped up for the 2-3 years it will take rebuild the confidence that a bull run requires. Before I get accused of being a perma bear, I trade this market both ways, makes no difference to me. I'm just stating what I see from almost 25 years of watching this. I hope I'm wrong.
right now spy is trading around 84 support (AH). the market looks like the worst sh*t but i remain optimistic (naive me) that the bottom will hold and we will have some upside for a month or so. i am short Nov spy puts (position underwater). if the bottom breaks (now or later). i believe the final bottom will be pretty obvious to spot. my bold prediction is that, if the current support is breached, one of the major financials (BAC, C or AXP) goes BK right around the final bottom. i think it will be BAC.
As long as the October 10th lows hold we're technically in a new bull market. We're stil above the october 26th close, too. The market is churning rather than collapsing.