1/3 banks to collapse - this sounds about right. just look at proportion of dow30 financials that crapped out. why should smaller banks fare better?
Survive in terms of... like... "Rabo Bell"? Dutchuahua... Chocolate (Cocoa) Bean Burrito... Chocolate Gordita... Chocolate Chalupas... Dutchos Bell Grande... Yummy!!!
I'm thinking that eventually there will only be one bank, and their name will be "THE BANK." And their motto will be "Don't bother us."
I think it more likely that everyone BECOMES a bank, or part of a bank in 2009, just to get access to government bailout money. Luckily its just paper, so they can always print more of it to pay off depositors.