I saw someone doing this online so I figured I'd test out my use of a desktop wiki on it and thought it was interesting enough to post here if anyone else is doing the same analysis and had the same result (that there is no edge). P(crossed line2, given crossed line1) - median ~68% We know that there is a pretty large variance between currencies (p=0.65..0.75) for the probability with the highest median which is P(crossed candle body midpoint | crossed candle body bottom). That is: This means that ~30% of the time, you will have price cross the previous day's candle body bottom, and of those times, 68% of the time you will cross the midpoint. Additionally, there is a 50% chance that when price crosses the previous day's candle body bottom, that it crosses the candle body top. So what we want to know is: on the days where we cross the previous day's candle body bottom, what is the distance between the previous day's candle body bottom and the candle body midpoint, and is there enough to make a profit? In fact, the median return on those days is 0.07% which translates to an expected value of 0.04% given the above probabilities. Interactive Broker's commission per side is 0.01% if you trade less than $1B/month. Assuming 0 slippage, that is an expected profit of 0.02%. So are there enough trades to make this worthwhile? In 3 years, it looks like the number of trades across all currencies that fall into this category would be ~300. With an expected profit of 0.02%, this works out to a (1+0.02%)^300 = 6% return over 3 years. Result: No edge.