I think the comet analogy is trend following. Nothing wrong with that. But that doesn't mean chart can not be useful. So different approaches, but they can provide the same result, profits...
A good discussion would be when and when not to play the difference. Volatility aside, getting the direction right is first for this simpleton. When the entire curve is moving in the same direction due to "whatever" maybe just pick a single leg and a direction. Tough to be wrong on a spreads direction as both legs rally in same direction.
Great talk, I really enjoyed it. Nice to know there are still successful discretionary traders trading on gut feel and experience.
I finally got around to this (I copy the audio track to my MP3 player and listen while I run). The most entertaining thing he said was describing how women engage with male traders upon first meeting, and the difference between women in Chicago vs Australia. Fast forward to 1:08:30.
I am not sure why how he looks is so unsurprising to people. He lives by the seat of his pants and not societal norms do not apply to him and he doesn't care. He drinks a lot and doesn't exercise much except for maybe golfing if you actually OBSERVE what he says in the interview.
I am not sure why he looks is so unsurprising to people. He lives by the seat of his pants and societal norms do not apply to him and he doesn't care. He drinks a lot and doesn't exercise much except for maybe golfing if you actually OBSERVE what he says in the interview. I know seat owners and old locals/traders in CHICAGO and NY and just like you and me they are all different except they all made MAD MONEY YOUNG. Just because I know some guys personally doesn't mean I know how to trade. My cousin traded in the FX pits as a local and was wiped out by electronic trading. He went to the screen and couldn't make it happen. There are reasons for this and most importantly it is because of the type of trading you do! The main guy that I know traded in the SP500 pit with Borselino etc. (my friend said he was a jerk) My freind made 20 million by the time he was 36 so he was big in the pits also. and those guys were basically the "HFT" of their time. The virtu financial and Citadels of the time. Most of the big guys were bears because when markets were functioning normally (human emotion) the big trades and money were made on the fear of losing.. and that is when huge downside moves would happen! Huge sell orders would fly into the pit and the locals were not dumb.. they would get short and hold for a day or 2. Just like you and me if you understand how much risk there truly is you want to be in and out QUICKLY. I was in the pool of a pit trader's vacation home.. 7,000 sq. feet and he picks up his cell phone and calls his broker at the cme.. he says out of the blue.. sell me 5 more.. so that's it..no screens no charts no SCALPING anymore. He just sold 5 more big sp500's. He looked at me and he said.. " I still like to use the brokers down there." Now he is one of the more successful OFF FLOOR old pit traders that I know. I said that's cool can you look at what i have been doing? he said sure but then he said.. you know you cannot do what I do right? I said well what do you mean.. he said you cannot trade like me because you do not have the money. I am always short the market.. always. I just keep selling into it from time to time. anyway he does look at charts and uses them to help judge direction and I am sure he got creamed in the last 10 years but I haven't heard from him. but I plan on calling him soon to catch up. He wasn't about to really show me what was going on in his mind. ( ( i called his office..he started getting short 5 weeks ago in the sp's. hsi addistant tole me he shorted another 5 bigs today )even years later he is still selling 5 lots at a time. )) When he did look at my trading.. which was ultra fast day trading.. basically scalping when you truly looked at it.. he said what the "F." how can you possibly trade that much. 50 -60 round turns a day holding for seconds..50K account size. he said you cannot beat the machines and fees trading like that.. what are you doing? YOU DO NOT LET THE MARKET EVEN START TO MAKE A MOVE and you are out. He said look buy 3 contracts of live cattle tomorrow. ok i said.. he then said.. DO NOT SELL THE CONTRACTS UNTIL you talk with me no matter what. i said OK.. the next day/morning.. I bought 3 contracts.. I was nervous as hell.. not kidding. I picked up the phone called the order desk..got a mkt (bid/ask) and tried to buy the bid .and said just get me in with your discretion ok. he said hold on.. and I was filled. immediately i was down of course to the tune of 400 to 500 bucks within hours.. this was freaking me out. I called my friend and he said annoyingly.. LET THE TRADE WORK a little and he hung up!! The next day i was down over a grand and really wanted to just call and get out of the whole thing. that was a big down day for me.. but if I really looked at it.. it wasn't any different than me paying out 4 days of commission and still losing!! In a commisison and fee free world.. my trading style always made money.. but not in the real world and I am talking real trades not demo.. ok so on the 2 nd day .. the mkt completely jumped and I was up like 500 or so. and day 3 i was up like 2400 bucks.. I called my freind and he said.. see you let the trade work and it is looking pretty good.. I said i want to sell.. He said why? i said because i am up 2400 and I haven't had that kind of profit in forever. he said you can do what you want of course but I am still holding my longs.. I hung up the phone..not a cell phone. I talked to him and i got the ok to sell.. right.. so what do you think i did? I sold one..took the profit.. I looked at the chart on it.. and immediately sold another one and by the end of the day I was out of all three and I made 2,600! I was pretty happy about it except that I had nothing to do with it really. I spoke with my friend and told him i sold all 3. He was in disbelief but figured that is what i was going to do.. he ended up riding a strong move for another week or 2 and looking at it my 3 lot..I would have made over 8000 had i just waited another 4 days. My point is that YOU have to understand the different types of trading. LOCAL pit traders were the casino and not the gamblers.. now other than hft algo we are all the GAMBLERS and you are either a good gambler or a bad gambler. I am going to write up a summary on the JOHN RAMBO TRADER INTERVIEW FROM MY PERSPECTIVE. It is obvious I AM VERY RISK AVERSE..right. things are different now but not that much different. I will work onmy write up of observations today and post it soon.
nothing is easy and typically in sprads you are long one and short the other or vice versa.. doesn't protect you much to get long soybeans and logn wheat? how is that a spread.. you would be logn the beans and short wheat.. that's a spread or long oct. beans and short novi beans. not long oct beans and long novi beans
as far as my typing goes.. I DO NOT WORRY ABOUT THE ERRORS IN MY TYPING I AM ALREADY IN THE NOW WORRYING ABOUT MY NEXT WORD!! ha ha ha
[QUOTE="s0mmi, post: 4685406, member: 438599" You can also do this with the STIR spread flies if they decide to move interest rates. You would observe how the spread is moving vs. the individual legs.[/QUOTE] Hey s0mmi, Reckon this is still possible to do this in any of the STIRs today with lower volatility ?