Am hoping no worse than recession, but pandemic could slide into worse. Debt is well, never be paid off. It be better to just say resume life and let chips fall where they may than constant staying at home requirements like El Paso has now. I have auto immune disease called Sarcoidosis and yet am traveling across USA, visiting sights might be last time if I catch it. So what, so many fear the unknown, it is like trading, put on long term trade/hedge one way or the other, if toppy, hedge open profits. I think we long overdue for larger decline than this year. So long stocks/hedged with ES which is hedged as well. You would never even know there was pandemic in New Jersey. People are working.
The fed will be here shortly. Even if the markets drop 37% in 2 months the fed will come in for the trillionth time and save it. Absolutely zero worries as the fed will literally ALWAYS save wallstreet
I agree with this. The general public, that is new to investing or has only seen this decade plus bull market, seems to think it is "winner" for the long term, which translates into buy anytime and hold. Carnage will come and swiftly due to the amplification factors in the market.
They have destroyed it for good. No such thing as free markets and price discovery will never ever ever exist because of the fed. And that goes for literally every market in the world.
I don't understand why you say technical analysis is noise. Even from the most basic standpoint, it's not like the market is just dropping out of no where and having big moves down, it's dropping from peaks points and often just retraces overbought levels where the market surged up in a generally unsustainable manner. If you're talking regarding the long side, there are deviation points on every single time frame, where you should not be looking short and only looking long. So, if the complaint is the relentless bid or up moves sometimes, there is a way to trade that as well via technical analysis. Another point is people often trade just one chart or find a strategy that is working and they think they know or have a good handle on TA, but it's only because the market is trending in one way. If your level of accuracy, profit factor or overall trading suffers when the market is overly bearish or overly bullish, than you really don't have a solid understanding of TA. I will agree that experience matters even more these days though. As you need to recognize situations and setups on days where the bid is likely going to be consistently pulled, therefore any TA strategy to the long side is going to struggle. But that still falls back to looking at larger charts, depending upon their position this can be a big hint as to when those days are likely going to be. Which is still using TA. Lastly not saying you're saying this, but I do see a lot of people say the action is too crazy or unpredictable. Well that's simply because there's large amounts of money being moved around and you need to know when a larger chart goes into a new sell or a new buy. In more normal markets it's rare that a larger chart goes into a new buy or new sell, most of the time it's just in a continuation buy. So, everyone can just pull up there 1 minute or 5 minute charts take a position and be reasonably on the right side most of the time. Never having to bother learning about higher time frames, because they weren't punished enough by them.
ZIRP has made valuation mavens miss the boat completely. Smoothing out Covid disruption, the equity risk premium is actually higher than in the early 2000s; it's just that the risk-free rate back then was 400-500bps instead of 75bps, as it is now.
re: charlatans The whole hedge fund industry is a scam because of the way managers get paid. Returns over time are to put it mildly mediocre. Return figures for the hedge fund industry are misleading because they do not include the numbers for those who have closed their doors. The name is survivorship bias.
%% Actually, its real easy to call tops in an uptrending bull market/ happens every day+ every week+every month..................................................................................... SPXS + SDOW can also rake off a short term profit sometimes.
David Einhorn Made 7.7% In Month He Claims "Enormous" Tech Bubble Popped https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/d...the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)