Your analogy (as usual) sucks, but not bc COIN is in trouble bc they are involved in crypto but bc they are already an anachronism in the space.
All I know is... I'm most likely going to be rolling my short-puts on COIN for a long time... haha. Don't bet against Chanos...
It's analogous to the Internet in 1995. It will be with us forever, but little to be made structurally once adoption is complete. The NFT craze is moronic. There is a ton of utility in putting patent applications, contracts, wills, etc. on the blockchain. Monetizing it is another story. The majority of LPs on uniswap are losers ($). So in this nascent state most LPs are losing money so what do you think will happen to profitability once it becomes (even) more mature? It's a fucking IQ test.
I can't remember if it was this year, or next year that Kraken was supposed to IPO. But they sure missed target, and won't get near to what they could have now that the euphoria is over and SPACs have died a deserved death. Now that the perma-bulls got taken to the cleaners by the HOOD IPO, and other 'meta' disasters, not much millennial dumb-money is left to go around this time.