http://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...nt-want-you-to-see-2015-12-01?link=MW_popular http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMZN+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AMZN+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true} http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=AMZN http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/financials/fi-126.1.AMZN.NAS Well... a lot of people have looked at AMZN and bet against it based on things like it's amazingly high P/E ratio, it's paltry earnings etc. and been proved wrong. AMZN has been growth personified and it's numbers have always been justified post hoc by that growth. Hulbert thinks that story is over (as so many others have in the past). At this time of year we will probably see a spike up in stock price as on-line spending continues to erode brick and mortar followed by a retreat after reality sets in. That pattern should be more pronounced next year as WMT and TGT get their on line markets working better and better known. I don't see WMT or TGT going to delivery drones but then I think the whole idea of delivery drones is crazy anyway. I think delivery drones will hurt rather then help AMZN. AMZN can't go on forever... and it's prey are beefing up their defense. Based on that hypothesis: Trade with AMZN at 679.06 Jan '17 900/880 bear call spread for a net credit of $320. Yield = 320/1680 = 19% in 416 days or 16.7% annualized Prob = 83% Expectation = .83(320) - .15(1680) - .02(840) = 295.6 - 252 - 17 = 26.6 Price......... Profit / Loss....... ROM % 500.00............ 320.00......... 16.00% 625.00............ 320.00......... 16.00% 750.00............ 320.00......... 16.00% 876.23............ 320.00......... 16.00% 880.00............ 320.00......... 16.00% 883.20................ 0.00.......... 0.00% 900.00.......... (1680.00)...... -84.00% 1000.00........ (1680.00)...... -84.00% 1125.00........ (1680.00)...... -84.00% Well the trade works out statistically but actually betting against further growth in AMZN stock price is a scary thought.