AMZN-how bad will it be?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by pumpanddumper, Jul 23, 2007.

  1. I was wrong trying to short in the 50's and will probably be wrong this time.

    My prediction is a 5-6% haircut during regular market hours and a waterfall sell off after hours to $62. I mean can they top last quarters results? Tough # to beat...

    So take the other way and stay long or buy $75 August calls.
  2. Rugby


    Interesting report from this stock....Low estimates and as others on here have noted a huge slug owned by that underperforming Bill Miller LM.

    Not sure how much more he rings it up given big run-up since last report...something tells me that how the street has reacted to other reports this quarter longs aren't going to get another 20 points... or maybe it gets whacked. I'm a little chicken though and if the big holder(s) start selling you'll know....short then....
  3. amzn is pretty notorious for running up shorts sky high into earnings, then when actual results come (and shorts have already capitulated), it plummets.
    P/E is still very high, and even if they meet or slightly exceed .15c, that doesn't bring P/E down to earth by much. This qrtr is also a seasonally bad qrtr. Market has been pretty unfavorable on earnings so far. Shorting looks tempting.

    There should be heavy short activity going into earnings, however. So, i might expect volatility to be stemmed on the downside, in case of mediocre to bad earnings
    (heavy puts at 65 limit downside risk to about -10%). Conversely,
    if the news is actually decent (or is spun as such), I wouldn't be surprised to see volatility explode 10% upwards ala RIMM(heavy call activity at 80 might also cap upside).

    Lately, good to great earnings by perceived great companies are getting hammered (likely, we'll see this on appl), while mediocre earnings on companies expected to perform weakly get run up.

    Summary, better risks out there IMHO.
    My 2 cents.
  4. I will throw my 2 pennies into this thread. I have said this a few times. My call is for Amazon to go up after earnings. Somehow you guys are expecting this way too much...I think it will be good.
  5. Thanks, that's why I went short. :D
  6. jazzsax


    Hold on for the ride, it's going hard one way or the other.

    Alot of people better be ready to bend over and hold some lube...

    As handsome would say "YEEEEEEEHAW"

    Any miss by AMZN and this one drops like Google did.
  7. $63 dollars after the bell.
  8. jazzsax


    $50 or $40 would be much nicer for this useless pig stock....

  9. I'm sgort at $70.50. Kind of feel like covering now just so I don't get screwed if it goes up.
  10. I'm out...
    #10     Jul 24, 2007