AMZN has topped

Amzn is a scary stock due to its price and relative volatility. Been caught a couple times overbought that didn't make me feel very good. Also did well buying at 2400.

I'd say below 3000 is a strong buy and above 3450 a strong sell.. that ought to be insightful.

 

When is it going to break the top again?

 

Actually, those are the scariest calls one can imagine! AMZN has been caught in that range for almost a year now! Surely it is going to break from that sideways trend channel, and you don't want to be on the wrong side of it!

 

I'm with Master Pu on this one. I think AMZN will drop, perhaps at or right around 3000 before Q3 then break 3600 before year end.

 

Yes, it's comfortable in that channel but AMZN I too big, too sophisticated with growing revenue channels to drop below 3000. As for the break up, it's a scary expensive stock... only the big boys can pull that one up.
I had a dream... that AMZN announced a 10 to 1 split. And suddenly, another large batch of millionaires hatched.

 

I have a disadvantage when it comes to this sort of analysis. Single-stock stuff. I look at the chart, see the ranging and think, "Oh, sure! It will continue north". But that is the bias of following the entire index, which generally always moves north. For the single AMZN? I do now know their balance sheet numbers and filings and all that other jazz.

Single-stock analysis and index analysis do not mix at all. Period.

 

Using the past 123 calendar days of AMZN close prices (20210309 through 20210528 and interpolated for non-trading days), I fitted 10 genetically-optimized models of the price each with a trend (parabola) added to cycles (three cosine waves):

Code:

y = 3186.75244140625  -  1.66189122200012 * x  +  0.0262469705194235 * x * x
    +  150.401702880859 * cos(twopi / 72.5654918514446 * x  +  5.28991079330444)
    +  40.8044090270996 * cos(twopi / 22.3648800112739 * x  +  4.77686977386475)
    +  27.7328491210938 * cos(twopi / 33.3058951198591 * x  +  3.16279983520508) ;
y = 3187.0634765625  -  1.66191053390503 * x  +  0.0262094251811504 * x * x
    +  150.338256835938 * cos(twopi / 72.5912142104311 * x  +  5.29230451583862)
    +  40.8393936157227 * cos(twopi / 22.3719902346146 * x  +  4.78108596801758)
    +  27.7681045532227 * cos(twopi / 33.2635778141259 * x  +  3.15066885948181) ;
y = 3186.72387695312  -  1.66191041469574 * x  +  0.0262678079307079 * x * x
    +  150.393203735352 * cos(twopi / 72.5061277502815 * x  +  5.28525924682617)
    +  40.7830009460449 * cos(twopi / 22.3611605742383 * x  +  4.77531671524048)
    +  27.6066722869873 * cos(twopi / 33.3388095780925 * x  +  3.17318177223206) ;
y = 3186.8232421875  -  1.66189396381378 * x  +  0.0262420140206814 * x * x
    +  150.407608032227 * cos(twopi / 72.5704625033508 * x  +  5.29053974151611)
    +  40.786075592041 * cos(twopi / 22.3571436438704 * x  +  4.7701678276062)
    +  27.6921615600586 * cos(twopi / 33.3087444847855 * x  +  3.16155242919922) ;
y = 3187.03271484375  -  1.661905169487 * x  +  0.0261980760842562 * x * x
    +  150.321746826172 * cos(twopi / 72.625828859653 * x  +  5.29530715942383)
    +  40.7986526489258 * cos(twopi / 22.3604799183632 * x  +  4.77236127853394)
    +  27.791015625 * cos(twopi / 33.2970580864754 * x  +  3.15557312965393) ;
y = 3186.76245117188  -  1.66193449497223 * x  +  0.0262517835944891 * x * x
    +  150.441329956055 * cos(twopi / 72.5552342291399 * x  +  5.28911161422729)
    +  40.7650413513184 * cos(twopi / 22.3633190254269 * x  +  4.77630233764648)
    +  27.687557220459 * cos(twopi / 33.3233488807664 * x  +  3.16751909255981) ;
y = 3186.82958984375  -  1.66188859939575 * x  +  0.0262433513998985 * x * x
    +  150.398376464844 * cos(twopi / 72.550078418829 * x  +  5.28864717483521)
    +  40.7879371643066 * cos(twopi / 22.3614712706593 * x  +  4.77465200424194)
    +  27.6643352508545 * cos(twopi / 33.310562755419 * x  +  3.16475296020508) ;
y = 3186.80590820312  -  1.66188931465149 * x  +  0.0262509100139141 * x * x
    +  150.382095336914 * cos(twopi / 72.5429388940486 * x  +  5.28791332244873)
    +  40.7542457580566 * cos(twopi / 22.3616633849798 * x  +  4.77519416809082)
    +  27.6796112060547 * cos(twopi / 33.3274866630208 * x  +  3.16945171356201) ;
y = 3186.82446289062  -  1.66189217567444 * x  +  0.0262470450252295 * x * x
    +  150.398773193359 * cos(twopi / 72.5409732751157 * x  +  5.28801918029785)
    +  40.8212890625 * cos(twopi / 22.3665907034445 * x  +  4.77891302108765)
    +  27.683349609375 * cos(twopi / 33.3009710512381 * x  +  3.16430616378784) ;
y = 3186.84130859375  -  1.66189134120941 * x  +  0.0262374337762594 * x * x
    +  150.382217407227 * cos(twopi / 72.5605281236681 * x  +  5.28966665267944)
    +  40.8580665588379 * cos(twopi / 22.3577553382111 * x  +  4.77039241790771)
    +  27.7047882080078 * cos(twopi / 33.2978995066575 * x  +  3.16057229042053) ;

y is the predicted price, and x is the number of calendar days since the beginning of the input data.

A graph with prices (+ signs), overlaid parabolas (smooth curves extrapolated to 20210618), and overlaid fitted models (wavy curves and extrapolated to 20210618) is:

The models predict the price will bottom about Wednesday or Thursday and rise from there.

 

Please replot it starting in June of last year. So 360 days or so.

 

Similar graph for 362 calendar days (20200601 through 20210528):

The fits with a parabola and three cosine waves aren't as close, and these models predict a top about next Monday.

 

So bottom around Weds/Thurs or a top next Monday?