David - if it's good for you, I'll sign up for the March 23 and 24 Technical Analysis course, and stick around til mid-morning Wednesday to watch/trade on your floor. You let me know, and I'll call Ryan to sign up. Thanks Mike
This thread reminds me of a Jeffersons episode that was on yesterday. I would expand, but my post would be deleted. I think you get my drift.
David, Just wondering what time frame you focus on in your TA? 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute, 60 minute, daily, or weekly? I assume it's off the intraday charts. With all the folks on ET talking about how challenging the market is, I was wondering why more folks don't focus on the daily charts where the risk/reward is so much better. Thanks
Darth, That's a good question. More attention needs directed to daily charts. As you can see, I use daily bars a lot. As far as the time frames I measure, I use the intraday set at 5 days with 2 min. bars while daytrading , but use the 225, 120, 90, 60, 30, 10 daily for all analysis I do including daytrading. Send me an e-mail and I will send you a copy of our MA breakdown which defines time horizons. I hope it helps. David.
I want to update where I am in this play and offer some words of caution. AMGN has held up well relative to the sector, and I am still trading the stock long intraday with tight stops waiting for a breakout through the ascending triangle I highlighted at the beginning of the tread. I'll post my new chart on the stock as well as my day trades since it was requested. I hope this helps. David.
I traded the market long in the morning with an intraday swing strategy in mind. I traded small (3000 shares) and covered everything early due to news (home sales and Greenspan). The market is very sensitive to economic level news right now. This is a good sign of a market turn (bullish or bearish). Yesterday's confidence number was a good example, as well as the political news that came out during the same time that suggested we may have troops in Iraq. The point is, when the market is this sensitive to news, it is a sign that the market needs direction beyond market internals. This historically has indicated a turn in the market, and this turn will pivot around a key Nasdaq technical level of 1800. I had a range that I was a buyer in, but I did take a bit more risk than expected. I bought stock pre-market and truly expected a rally off the open. I averaged in the shares which I usually do since I trade some big size, but stayed small today when the rally didn't happen. I expected a much better move into Greenspan, etc. The point is, adjusting your size and risk to what is actually happening, not what you think, so while I took some heat in the trade, I wasn't in too deep with shares size. While there was a great short in the middle of the day, I stayed away from the market since my bias was long. This is an example of how one can trade a bias in the market, make money, and still be wrong about the bias by trading what you observe not what you believe. I believed in the long side of the market today and traded it. I didn't short because I never saw the shorts coming. Most new traders trade what they believe and loose focus of what they observe...that's a mistake. Hope this helps!
David, How many names do you typically trade during the day? Is this AMGN campaign a typical approach, that is establish a core directional position using options then trade around it intraday?
AAAinthe beltway, I trade like a Specialist or market maker in a big stock, meaning I focus on only a few stocks at a time. I don't jump around the market much at all. I trade biotech and Semi's the most by far. I'll trade technology and internet when they are the recipient of money flow, but ultimately, I make my l trading living on specializing. I also trade a core or "post position" with the sector or stocks w/i it. For example, I'll do spreads or other synthetics on the SMH, BBH, or big stocks w/i the sector and then daytrade around them in ordsr to lower the cost basis of the swing trade. So your are correct, this is a large part of my market strategy as a rule. Trade Wise!
As promised, here is the completion of my trade on the AMGN idea I presented at the start of this thread. I suggest for educational value, you read each post and the accompanying chart to see how and way the trade was made. I will highlight a trade like this each month as its own thread title. See you Monday! See attachment
David - that was nice trading on AMGN - even on Thursday (I was on the Webex) I am signed up for the technical analysis course Mar 23/24, and will stay to join you on your trading floor the 25th and 26th - and I hope to meet you then. Mike