Here is my thoughts on AMGN for next week. This post was originally on p. 11 of the "trading expo" thread and reported here. My next post after this will go into deeper detail. Disclaimer: This is the opinion of the poster and not a recommendation. Every trader must make their own decisions based on their own discretion, research and analysis. This post is for educational value only. The poster for the record is Long March Calls on AMGN. Trade Wise! http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=43691
Unfortunately, I cannot read graphics in .doc files, so I don't know what indicators you used in your second post. From what I see in my daily chart, parabolic SAR seems to confirm your theory, but MACD does not look too great, neither do the Bollinger bands. It is true that the 20SMA is about to break above the 50 SMA, but the price has traded around the 50SMA for over a week, plus the 50SMA is headed down. On the hourly chart it looks like the upward move is a correction and just about finished. The more I contemplate it, the more I think you are right. Just forget what I said. Good luck to you, although I know you don't need as much of it as I do...
For future reference that green font you used for your comments on your chart are extremely harsh on the eyes...at least on my monitor....might want to use a different color. How was the snow up in Breck? I sent you an email to your EliteTrader box ...don't know if you can access your other mail there up in the mountains.
Bought a bunch of MLNM at 19.01 Friday afternoon in anticipation of a strong BTK rally soon. Haven't put on a swing trade in a while and am excited, as I'm pretty confident MLNM and the BTK are poised for an upsurge based on what I see in the charts. Let's hope we're right!
dstod, I hope the trade works well. Remember not to marry the idea, if the levels don't hold support at the 50 MA you should have mental or electronic stops set to keep losses small. This has always been the question for disciplined traders in the sense that the stops need to have some room so that traders are whipsawed out of what otherwise could have been great trades. I feel conviction and discipline both live on the same side of a very thin line. While I am sure you understand this very well, I hope you don't mind me offering my view of it. While this is only a cursory view of your swing trade and constant reevaluation is required while in it, this should help you give the trade a chance to work while maintaining discipline. Ultimately your risk tolerance must govern, but here is what I see. hope this help! Disclaimer: This information is NOT a recommendation and only provided for educational purposes. All Traders are responsible for all decisions and the poster takes no responsibility for action the reader may take on the content.
May I second the comment about .doc files. I cannot see graphics in this format either. Annotated charts in .gif or .jpg format would be accessible to all.
David, Thanks for your posts and charts. Enjoyed your analysis of MLNM, also looks to me like a trade is somewhat premature at this time. But as a swing, as long as it doesn't violate the top greenline support, then I can't find a serious flaw in it (other than tieing up capital...)