Amgen In July

Round #2:

Assuming we don't make a new high in Thursday's session, I'll be going short below Wednesday's low with a stop above Tuesday's high of 72.37. Something also interesting to note is the price/volume divergence going on in this one on the daily chart. From June 20 to Today the daily volume has been on the decline as price has been rising.

Remember, if this thing decides to trade above 75...my interest in shorting AMGN will be gone. At that point I'll be looking for long set ups to develop against Fib price support.

-D

 

I'm still short AMGN. The problem is that numbers are coming out tomorrow. So I will cover part of my position and buy some puts instead. IMHO numbers will be OK, that's why AMGN is up that much- insiders bought. Maybe some parallels to YHOO.

 

I'm also still short AMGN stop above current swing high of 72.37.

 

Hi Derrik,

Do you cover before earnings or keep your position?

 

If there will be a huge gap after earnings came out , stop @72.37 could be useless.

 

My response to the keep or sell before earnings is this:

Whatever you do...do it all the time with all your trades. So for me I choose to hold positions into earnings. Sure...I get gapped against me sometimes. I accept that as a risk of trading. But that is evened out by the positions that gap in my direction off of these set ups. Bottom line: I gotta be consistent.

-D

 

Hi Derrik,

AMGN looks fine, at least so far. What is your price target?

 

Slowly breaking down or buildinga base to make a thrust to the upside?

The key resistance is from 69.61-71.18. The last two countertrend rallies since the high we put in have each been 3.2 points from low to high. So, if we travel higher than that on any rally from here, I'd be concerned that my short will likely get stopped out. For now, I'm holding my shorts

 

Our short trade is working out nicely. However, the daily chart that I've attached is doing a symmetrical two step pattern into a Fibonacci price support zone. On today's move down I took 1/3 of my position off at day's end and have trailed my stop to 71.31 on the rest, which is basically break even from my entry on the final 2/3. My stop placement is above the .786 retracement of the July swing high to today (Tuesday's) low.

Take note of the price zones and Air Pockets. An Air Pocket is simply a zone where a Fibonacci price level does not exist and represents a price area where we could see fast moves to the downside.

Now, let's see if we can ride this baby down for a few weeks.

 

.gif file is too big to post...so I guess if anyone is interested just email me and I'll send you the chart.

Thanks,

Derrik