How is it a fiction? Initial jobless claims went negative on a year over year basis in November of 2009, if you look at the unadjusted numbers. The latest report was 13% lower than this same time last year. Data here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=ICNSA Tax receipts are rising strongly:Quarterly Tax Receipts This shows, if you download the excel and do some very simple calculations, that corporation income tax receipts are 20% higher this year in the 2nd quarter than last, individual income tax receipts are 17.4% higher this year in the 2nd quarter than last, and that sales taxes are running at 4.4% higher. Overall tax receipts are 6.9% higher year-over-year. Just to head this one off at the pass: Federal tax rates have not risen, and are actually somewhat lower than last year if only because of the automatic adjustment for inflation built into the tax brackets. On the state level, governors have been cutting spending rather than raising taxes, overall. So, how exactly do you square rapidly growing tax receipts on flat or declining tax rates and unemployment claims coming down at a double-digit rate YOY (which they've been doing for nearly two years now) with your picture of a dead economy? How about actually stating a real reason behind your statement that the Birth/Death model is, somehow, overstating how well the economy is doing? I'm all ears.