AMZN stock is heading by guessing what consumers buying habits will be for an upcoming holiday season or what Wally World is up to.... naaaa... I hear what you are saying. I made a mistake by citing revenue to try to disprove your AWS "cash cow" statement. I admit that's wrong. You are right, AWS is almost half of AMZN's gross profits. You win on that, I lost. However, the trend for quarterly revenue for AWS is not trending the right way. I understand that is not the same as profits. But money being taken into the organization via AWS is not trending in the right direction. This is an even greater impact as you have shown that 47% of the gross profits come from AWS. Is there true loyalty to AWS? The Cloud in many ways is becoming increasingly commoditized. Azure with Microsoft has a strong-hold on .NET apps in the cloud. Google dropped the ball for their B2B cloud services in a number of ways that center around ease-of-use, deployment, and customer service. Any improvements from GOOG will more than likely eat into the profits of AMZN before MSFT. Enterprise and mid-sized companies are looking to become "cloud agnostic". There is an erosion of brand loyalty in the cloud as they look to scale apps based on real-time demand among a number of cloud providers at the same time instead of being married to just one. Even if AMZN remains "king of the cloud" through AWS, still, a large amount of their profits come from the consumer side. The side with Walmart and Target being direct competitors.
yes there is loyalty for the cloud. It’s not trivial to move from one cloud service to another. You have to rewrite your software. You will do it for the right price but there is a stickiness to the revenues. Further everyone’s cloud usage is going up. Every year you either have more data stored on the cloud or your computational time on the cloud is going up. It’s like the perfect utility business without any of the regulation. Amazon’s cloud is worth one trillion dollars by it self. An online retail store that we all laughed at for being unprofitable built the most profitable tech platform in the world. Google, oracle, and everyone else (but Microsoft) couldn’t do it.
Again, I'm just playing devil's advocate here, but all those billions of $'s AMZN has plowed back into their logistical operations, wouldn't you say that puts them eons ahead of TGT and WMT? How many WMT or TGT delivery vans will you see today? They even have the USPS schleppin' boxes. Sure I guess the other two can use UPS or FDX, or even the USPS for that matter; but does that not erode profits? Curbside pick-up at the B&M? No way at scale. I saw that during the early part of our lock-down, friggin cars were backing up traffic on main thoroughfares. The average AMZN driver delivers over 200 packages/day... one driver! I don't think curbside is much of a threat. Cars would be lined up for miles. Overall, logistically WMT has ALWAYS been cutting edge, credit where credit is due. They redefined things before Bezos even sold his first book. But I wonder if comparisons can now be drawn comparing WMT's model to a legacy airline's hub and spoke model, vs AMZN's model, which is perhaps more like LUV's(?). That may or may not be an accurate comparison. There are some parallels though if you think about it. And then there's always this: what happens when AMZN throttles back on capex? That bottom line should explode right? They can do that at will. They've done it at will lol. Every time analysts get too nasty, bam.... AMZN lets WS know just how much money they really make. In the end its where the big money parks itself that matters. What portfolio manager is going to tell their clients... "I don't own any AMZN"? Not many, that's for sure.
%% AMZN is actually an underperformer this year; but now that mr Bezos is headed to the moon, AMZN is strangely headed that way today...............................................................I have an old , old book about warren Buffet+ the clown that wrote that ''value'' book i told why AMZN was overpriced many years ago/LOL. SEPT sells are so common , may right on that month. I shop more @WMT, than AMZN; groceries, fresh food, tires, gasoline, fruit trees, stuff to expensive to ship But AMZN give free fruit also to workers,
Everyone loves AMZN right now. It's hard to find Analysts who are bearish. Maybe there are some, but at a glance, I see nothing but bullish takes. Many in fact are bullish. Any mentions of bearish possibilities will be quickly countered here. I've seen this happen before. Sometimes, things like AMZN keep going up and can't be faded. Sometimes being contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian does not work. Maybe AMZN is one of those cases. Maybe it will just keep going up. However, the abundance of love for AMZN has to at least grab the attention of those of us who want to fade the crowd.
It all depends on which crowd you're referring to I guess. Retail players mean nothing on this one. It was up almost 5% today. As these things go, it might be best to cut your losses. 5% is a LOT for an elephant. At this point, you may be betting on the greater tide pulling out. That too could happen, but it better be big. I dunno Matt... best of luck either way.
Look, you are right again! It is up 5% since we last spoke. lol. I'm not going touch it until September. Looking to get short in September and holding for 1 month. It is purely a seasonality play. It is not based on any fundamentals.
A minor point perhaps, but the chart shows revenue growth, not revenue. Its showing that revenue for each quarter of 2020 was c.30% more than the same quarter in 2019.
%% SOME mindlessly buy most anything[major anything] in QQQ or xlk/LOL They will probably do fine on Whole Foods/ especially with those like to spend thier whole paycheck on whole foods/LOL. I do buy organic some times @ WMT.,