Amazing volatility - Will it last?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Laissez Faire, Feb 9, 2016.

  1. ktm

    ktm

    I don't define volatility by the VIX number, and I think lots of others do the same. You can get a high VIX number from just going down day after day. Simply going down is not volatility. If something is volatile it's moving sharply in either direction in a somewhat unpredictable and random fashion. If we go UP the exact same amount as we go DOWN every day, the VIX goes down instead of up.
     
    #61     Feb 28, 2016
  2. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    OK, how about average daily range? In August there were multiple days when ES went 60+ points and even in September most days had 25+ points range. If that is not volatile enough for ya......

    You not gonna win this debate my friend... My point is still stands.
     
    #62     Feb 28, 2016
  3. I made this thread on the 8th of February referring to that exact date which had 6 major swings counting 10 points or more each.

    For the last 805 trading days; 657 days had one or more major swings.

    Out of those 657 days, only 18 days or roughly 3% of the sample had exactly 6 major swings.

    In fact, 85% of those 657 days had between 1-3 swings, with a far majority having only one major swing.

    So, my data supports what I suspected back then and it seems that you're wrong.

    PS: This is not accounting for the size of the swings which were also well above the norm.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2016
    #63     Mar 31, 2016
  4. Q3D

    Q3D

    You are writing from the perspective of someone who knows what they are doing, that's a strong statement, does this mean that you have profitably and consistently traded and captured 80-95% of these intraday swings on the ES? I think that's almost impossible for a discretionary PA-based trader who places any emphasis on risk management, most pullbacks in what only becomes clearly a trend after-the-fact have very strong countertrend signal bars in realtime. It seems like the only people profiting off of these large intraday swings consistently are the smarter players using them as a hook to lure new retail day traders in.
     
    #64     Mar 31, 2016
  5. Actually, that's not quite what I said. I also said (then) that I'm not currently in the market.
     
    #65     Mar 31, 2016
  6. Q3D

    Q3D

    This is not a workable strategy, past performance will be not indicative of future results, your major factor giving this strategy a small chance of brief success is luck premised on very fleeting market inefficiency, the idea of a 3 point stop on the ES not being hit and a trader holding for 7 times that risk is a black swan event, 3 point stops are well within the ES' ATR during most conditions of volatility, so this is a failed strategy as well which will, over time, only enrich the CME, brokerages, and institutions.
     
    #66     Apr 1, 2016
  7. speedo

    speedo

    No need to continue Q3K, you've already convinced us you can't trade.
     
    #67     Apr 1, 2016
    Laissez Faire and dartmus like this.
  8. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    @Q3D
    Sure it's better to reverse.
    3 points TP and 21 points SL.
     
    #68     Apr 1, 2016
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  9. Correct. This poster continues to demonstrate both his ignorance and poor reading comprehension. :)
     
    #69     Apr 2, 2016
  10. Q3D

    Q3D

    Your assertion that high volatility as defined as 20-40 point moves in the ES with very minor retracements, allowing traders to tightly control risk were not black swan events in 2016 and that high volatility is not a double-edged sword but it is a cash windfall for discretionary day traders are utterly false, you and speedo resorting to ad hominems shows the weakness of your positions.
     
    #70     Apr 2, 2016