amateurs have no chance

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dozu888, Mar 21, 2019.

  1. maxinger

    maxinger

    Amateurs always have a choice

    to follow the big boys early (which is very wise) ,

    to follow the big boys very late ( which is very foolish),

    or to persistently go against the big boys ( which is kamikazae trading).
     
    #101     Apr 8, 2019
  2. sillyw10

    sillyw10

    you should team up with tradergod..it really is amazing how human behaviour keeps repeating over and over..doing the same old dumb thing day after day..and then they wonder why they really get nowhere..as I said..cannon fodder to be maintained at any cost..and boy have they done a good job of it!
     
    #102     Apr 8, 2019
  3. sle

    sle

    Lol, what? Where did you get 50%?

    250 bps of yield change * 8ish duration ~= 20% change in price
     
    #103     Apr 8, 2019
    srinir and Magic like this.
  4. dozu888

    dozu888

    Yield = coupon/price

    Coupon doesn’t change.
     
    #104     Apr 8, 2019
  5. Magic

    Magic

    Seems like you were thinking of yield only and didn't even consider the return of principal aspect before blurting that statement out.

    When someone says "bonds will crash 50%".. it's obviously implied that [value of] is being discussed.

    You come across as a pretty zealous perma-bull. Usually it works out alright for you guys in the long run as long as you don't over-leverage, but the lack of nuance and thoughtfulness stands out to people that make a more serious study of the markets.

    Imo if you want to optimize from here you need to think a lot more about other dimensions like risk, correlations, etc. rather than just yield / forward earnings. The market isn't stupid.. bonds are priced relative to stocks the way they are for very good reasons.. you seem to think there is a massive inferiority in the asset class at present and that is not a very rational belief.
     
    #105     Apr 8, 2019
    soulfire likes this.
  6. sle

    sle

    Dude, that's current yield. The bond price responds to yield to maturity (that's why duration matters).

    PS. It's hilarious that this is happening in a thread named "amateurs have no chance"
     
    #106     Apr 8, 2019
    GregorySG9 and Magic like this.
  7. dozu888

    dozu888

    yeah.. I mostly just look at the 10 year..
     
    #107     Apr 8, 2019
  8. schweiz

    schweiz

    You did not steal your nickname "silly"...

    You have no information about me or my trading results but yet you are so smart that you can tell me who I am and how bad I am in trading.

    "It really is amazing how human behaviour keeps repeating over and over..doing the same old dumb thing day after day..and then they wonder why they really get nowhere.."

    Indeed,losers who only can repeat what is impossible (according to them) and how 99% are losers.
    No wonder profitable traders don't post on ET anymore.

    You don't even understand that stocks are not really the best thing for daytrading. That tells all about you as an "expert". People who agree with me are by (your) definition idiots, losers, fake...

    It is ironic that this website is called ELITE traders. LOL.

    The biggest risk factor or cause of failure in trading is the trader. Not the leverage or anything else.

     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2019
    #108     Apr 8, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    Why gave up day trade stocks and forex and why futures? I know you are going to say you are more profitable trading future but why?
     
    #109     Apr 8, 2019
  10. ironchef

    ironchef

    You just contradicted yourself: you do. :D

    Have a good day.
     
    #110     Apr 8, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.