AMAT and CHiP Stocks

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ARogueTrader, Feb 14, 2004.

  1. AMAT is due to report next week on the 18th after the bell (Wednesday).

    A review of the chip sector's primary components of INTC, AMAT as revealed in the SMH indicates we are at key support.

    I think the direction will become clear after AMAT's numbers.

    If INTC remains a "channeling stock" we are at a good place to be a buyer. If we fail at support, I think we are headed to 25.

    Friday's action was primarily about the decline in chip stocks, as the box makers (DELL, HPQ, IBM) all held rather firmly.
  2. abogdan


    I too think that AMAT is heading to $25. I bought it on Friday @ 21.67. I now hold 16000 shares Long. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
  3. on the open if futures are lower

    also Barrons this weekend in the Abelson column
    had a guest pan the sox index valuations

    they have done this before ... so perhaps the BS won't work
    this time for their readers

    good luck ... I have no position in any chippies at this time
  4. ertrader1

    ertrader1 Guest

    Chip industry is in for a little awakening, not sure if INTC is going to 25, but i do see a bloody situation at hand if the SOX index breaks down. This will not happen overnight ofcourse, IMHO I think many hedge funds are short the TECHs and are building bigger postions as this rally starts to fade. Mutal funds flow are up for a reason, and its not the smart money thats long.
  5. abogdan


    Well, I'm a sentiment follower. I've got a very positive signal of the long-term player's sentiment on Friday. It looks that insiders are buying too prior the report on 18th. I hope I'm right. I wont lie, I have butterflies in my stomach! :)
  6. Gambling on earnings can be dangerous.

    Also, earnings comes a couple of days before option expiration.

    If I were going to bet long in a major way, I would buy some cheap insurance (Feb puts) in case I was wrong.

    What the charts are saying is that the chip sector is weak right now, that the DOW and the S&P500 went to new highs while the chip sector was floundering.

    I am positive on chips long term, but I will likely go flat prior to the earnings news, or hedge with options if I take a long or short position.

    We are nearing key support on INTC and AMAT, reflected by the SMH.

    Breaking that support, there could be a real watershed down.

    Also, I think we get book to bill ratio reports this next week.

    Important news for the chip sector.

    By the way, I know of 2 large hedge funds playing AMAT, one is long the stock, the other is long AMAT puts.

  7. abogdan


    I’m also short April calls ($25 strike) and twice the amount of $20 April puts. I'm net positive with enough capital to get stock at $20 if they feed it to me on expiration of my puts.