Am looking for a simple strategy for trading the Dow Jones

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by Dave2, May 27, 2005.

  1. if one can state that markets chop for around 70% of the time and that using MA crossovers in chop will result to losses, what good are MA crossovers?
     
    #11     May 28, 2005
  2. mogul

    mogul

    problem with that is that certain variables work during certain timeperiods

    I had some fun testing 30 futures markets using a dual sma\ema cross system, works great when you optimize, but not so well in out-of-sample testing
     
    #12     May 28, 2005
  3. Dave2

    Dave2

    Hi SimSim,

    Yes, using crossovers could be ok with a trend confirmation indicator, possibly ADX. But as Mogul points out the Time Frames would need to be taken into consideration. I should have mentioned earlier that I will be looking to trade the DJI between 7pm-9pm GMT and would probably be looking at the 5min chart frame for entry and 15min frame for trend direction.
     
    #13     May 28, 2005
  4. #14     May 28, 2005
  5. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    Post-optimization is an attempt to solve a dynamic problem with a static solution. That's called "inherently sub-optimal". :D :D
     
    #15     May 29, 2005
  6. All I meant was......it would seem that the simpleness or complexity of a strategy is not what you seek. Profit is what you seek isn't it :confused:

    I personally think the best strategies are the one that are very simple. You will get no argument from me on that one. I trade a couple automated strategies and they have very basic code to make them operate. My favorite TV show is Andy Griffith if that helps.

    Have you backtested moving average crossover strats? Usually, the tester comes to the conclusion that they are not worth the risk.

    And....no offense taken...just trying to help you think things thru.


     
    #16     May 29, 2005
  7. Dave 2,

    You have most of the work completed! You have identified your "time slice" that you would like to trade and your "basket" of stocks that you can learn well..

    Now, all you must do is take those 30 Dow components and find out what pattern that you can "mine" that would give you a ranking on a high probability trade with a "one component a day strategy".

    Seems exciting, you can do it!

    You do not need anybody but yourself...

    Michael B.

    P.S. I have a marvelous idea for you...but you must PM me..Do you daytrade or hold overnight?




    My reason for asking for a 'simple strategy' (I realise that it is a very general term) is that I don't have a lot of time during daytime hours to trade the DJI but do have two hours from 7am - 9am GMT after work. Therefore, if I do manage to identify a strategy, I will be delighted.
     
    #17     May 29, 2005
  8. How about the dogs of the dow strategy. Historical return of over 17% a year with one portfolio reshuffle a year.
     
    #18     May 29, 2005
  9. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Successful trading is very simple, its just not easy.

    Brandon
     
    #19     May 29, 2005
  10. Nice (low labor)

     
    #20     May 29, 2005