Am I wasting my time backtesting my strat?

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by DROBBY, May 6, 2020.

  1. easymon1

    easymon1

    what can be said about the drawdowns produced by your system, especially those that fall down here in the worst 5% range of the bitcheroo group, and the methods you (plan) to use to deal with em?
    zuck 987.jpg
     
    #11     May 6, 2020
  2. Nobert

    Nobert

    You're building your castle on a cracking rock.

    A defeat by default.

    rrr.gif

    Find those things, that has solid fundamentals,
    (BTC isn't one of them) & at the same time
    - test multiple strategies.
     
    #12     May 6, 2020
  3. easymon1

    easymon1

    what would you say comprise solid fundamentals?
    what is the minimum timeframe to which solid fundamentals can be effectively applied? Thx
     
    #13     May 6, 2020
  4. DROBBY

    DROBBY

    You will think I am a moron. But BTC has the best fundamentals than anything in the market right now.

    Forex: toilet paper fiat crap based on the fact we pay our taxes with these currencies

    stocks: Over valued because they have been the only way to grow capital meaningfully ever since interest rates have been slashed. Which means they are overvalued and the house of card can come crashing down any time.

    Bonds: Suffers from the same problems forex does but worst since they are backed by debt crippled governments.

    BTC??? Well the fact that the market agrees that one unit of a numeric ''currency'' is worth 9000$ should tip you off as to the fact that there is something going on here. It is the first asset in history that cannot be seized. It is the first asset in history with a limited supply which is completely 100% impossible to increase.

    As I said I don't think you'll agree with me, and sorry if I sound smug. It is not my intention, I am just saying my opinion.
     
    #14     May 6, 2020
    Nobert likes this.
  5. DROBBY

    DROBBY

    Risk is limited to 6% of account with a hard stop. Win ratio is around 60%. So yeah a bunch of losses can hurt. But the real danger is if bitcoin stop to move. The profits are so insane that losing 6% on a trade is a joke to me. Last week I had a 50% trade.

    Again I am going for a long shot with 1000$. I have enough data to know it is possible. But there is still a risk of ruin, although I consider it very low.
     
    #15     May 6, 2020
  6. easymon1

    easymon1

    win ratio is of small concern compared to what happen's when you are wrong, imho.
    over the range of losses between -0.5% and -6%, what's haps trader?
     
    #16     May 6, 2020
  7. MichalTr

    MichalTr

    I don't think there is one "right" way. It's more about person and his approach to that way and what suits whom. And many many other things. In fact it's very long topic and sorry, but I just don't want to write the whole essay here (I have nicer things to do :p). And I have written "you would be surprised how many", not that all the ppl do something or don't do something.
     
    #17     May 6, 2020
  8. Nobert

    Nobert

    Are you, on some kind of a witch-hunt campaign ?
    Because based on your behavior atm, it doesn't look like someone with a clear mind.

    Let me explain why :

    You just asked me a question that i could answer with my eyes closed, woken up at 3AM.
    And the best part is - you know the answers yourself.

    Four rational explanations left :

    #1 - you just want to communicate (happens)
    #2 - you're trolling (happens as well)
    #3 - you're pissed off (well, get over it man)
    #4 - you're stupid (i hope not, but if so - bad luck)

    And no, i don't need a validation of nobody, so i will keep the answer to myself.
    (what a selfish noob, yup, i know)

    Now just a disclaimer, i am, absolutely in cool mood right now, chating with my friends about 500 years old sharks, and watching a movie.

    If by any chances i got it wrong - sorry.


    Best of luck D, can't judge, neither support, just gave my 2 cents.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2020
    #18     May 6, 2020
    DROBBY likes this.
  9. easymon1

    easymon1

    you are asking about taking a $1000 flyer?
    what are you waiting for.
    Tell us how you do!
     
    #19     May 6, 2020
  10. easymon1

    easymon1

    goodness gracious, nobert.

    just answer the question please.
    yes you may have misinterpreted.
    fundamentals on the balance sheet hide many sins.
    markets can remain irrational longer than i can remain solvent.
    i would like to trade fundamentals.
    don't know how You do it.
    help me out.
     
    #20     May 6, 2020