Gotcha, I am trying to "sim" in my mind as much as I can. Rarely do I find myself telling myself, "It's only sim." Trading 3 contracts in sim has been good psychologically as well as technically. It's good to go thru sim reps of good trades/profits as well as bad/losses. I'm not scaling in. I'm purely discretionary trading while trying to interpret indicators / signals. I'm usually using limit orders for entries & often for exits. Rarely getting stopped out. I'm using max 4 point stops, but often much tighter on the common small range days. Thks for the Monte Carlo sim! What does it show for my max draw down? I agree, I want to start live ASAP. But, I've agreed with my wife no earlier than Aug 1st. A couple more weeks won't matter in the long run. Would hate to miss a big drop day, though! Tks for your thoughts on possible reactions to going live. Forewarned is forearmed.
comagnum, you may have gotten a mistaken impression. I'm not using a system to place trades. I have not back-tested anything. I don't know how to back test the discretionary sim account trading I've been doing. I do understand the "bid/asked spread" to which you refer. I've been using mostly limit orders for entry. Since I started trading 3 contracts in July (previously 1 contract), I have encountered partial fills and fills taking time or more than one hit at my price before getting all 3 filled. I do understand entering MKT orders will result in 1/4 pt or so "not in my favor" fills (depending on the volatility & depth of orders at the moment of entry). I can't think of a better way to take into account slippage in accounting for my results & making forecasts than by using my actual sim results. Pls be assured I am not unaware of the factor. I am hopeful I will be successful enough that it will become a bigger factor - meaning at that point I'll be trading larger multi-contract lots! Tks for your concerned counsel & good wishes. I'll be paying attention to this factor as I go forward.
Simulated trading seems to draw a fair amount of criticism around here...however; 1 It's a great way to forward test a strategy. 2 Any sensible individual who attempts a risk enterprise, eg gymnasts, aerialists, test pilots, fighters etc. practice in a simulated or otherwise aided environment before going "live". 3 If you can't show profitability in simulation, you will not be profitable by going live. Doing fine Doug...keep it up. We all screw up, just learn from any and correct. If you feel ready on August 1, go for it.
Please report back 1 week after going live. Thanks....nobody listens...he might listen if his wife grabs him by the nose and gives him a kick in the posterior part of the organism.
Stop right there, notional value is completely irrelevant. It is the margin required what is relevant for the discussion.