So the joint probability of getting two heads in a row is higher than the probability of getting heads on a single coin toss? How very fascinating. You should write a book.
My bankaccount proofs just the opposite. I daytrade since the early 90's. For many years now not painfull and surely not money losing. I repeat: If you compare trading and probabilities in trading with flipping coins you should stop trading immediately as trading has NOTHING to do with flipping coins. So don't break your head on something irrelevant to trading. As basic probabilities of flipping coins has nothing to do with trading I have no problems in my trading. I understand basic probabilities of flipping coins but they are irrelevant for trading, that is my point. You have problems with comprehensive reading. Do you have to understand how to play golf to be a good footballer? Because that is what you basically say.
Very rare for me to disagree with whatever you've posted, M, but on this occasion ... I don't think that's a fair analogy at all, and I don't think it's what he basically said, either. The reality is that the OP isn't going to have a cat's chance in hell of becoming a steadily profitable trader without understanding the very fundamentals of probability and statistics. Granted, coin-flipping has absolutely nothing to do with trading, per se, but understanding each of them rests on an ability to distinguish between original and current chances (yes, that bit comes into trading, too), and at the moment it's clear that he completely lacks that, or at the very least has "unaccountably overlooked" it.
Everybody is free to have it's own opinion. No problem. I don't consider myself as an expert in the fundamentals of probability and statistics. But I never needed it, not in developping a trading system, nor in trading it. I do understand the probabilities in trading and that's all that is needed. That was my initial remark and the point I wanted to make. So for some part we agree and for some other part we disagree.
I know you do. The OP doesn't. You don't need to be an expert in them, but you understand (maybe from high school math or whatever - it doesn't matter) the basic principle that "the coin has no memory", and that relates to why you were able to understand whatever you needed to understand about the probabilities in trading. But the OP apparently doesn't at all, hence the misguided content of his first post ... and without that "fundamental background" he has no realistic chance at all of ever understanding the probabilities in trading. (Is my contention.) Fair enough.
Yes, I projected my personal experience on somebody else. I always tell never to do that, but make sometimes the mistake myself. That was wrong.
You are only counting your tosses. There are others in the universe tossing coins. You tossed 10 heads in a row. Another guy tossed 10 tails in a row...all in-between your tosses.
This 0.05% probability applies to a SINGLE SPECIFIC CASE. The probability case that exists BEFORE THE FIRST COIN FLIP.
Yea, I agree with you, but I think everyone develops Arrogance at some point, bragging rights of accomplishing what many can't seem to go. Trouble comes in when one start to believe in their own bullshit in being good, market tends to make oneself humble...and less money, LOL. ********************************************* And flipping a coin is not exactly 50/50, what happens when it lands on the edge since a coin has three edges? I have twice had 23 losses in a row, and I know one day that personal record will be broken. Trading is like living, it is living, we all trade but often times it is at a store buying a pound of tomatoes is trading. Going to a flea market you are trying to get it at lower price, you have a limit order. Records are to be broken, eventually and don't take it personal, if you have well back tested Trading Plan, the method is losing and not you. Don't bet the farm like I did many years ago, don't let that $300 stop loss turn into $30,000 account cause you violated your own rules. Didn't find it funny then, but I can't stop laughing bout it now when I think back. Some of us are dumber than others-faster you realize that the better, but you then study more than others, keep open mind, listen more, even the people you don't like.