Yeah, it only looked good bc of the vol-switch (D1 vols over D2) due to NFP. Yeah, I am always long tails.
Oh ok since you asked in your post "Should I maybe worry about volatility contraction for the long legs?" so I thought you have actually taken a trade and are concerned about the phenomenon of the "volatility crush" affecting your profitability and I thought I answer your questions. On the payoff diagram which is what you pulled off from TDA, you need to look at the profit/loss that you would get shown on the vertical axis on the left corresponding at different levels of the underlying in this case the SPX. That's what I was trying to show you.
%% You mean besides the dividends\ +bid ask\ spread?? I hope it pays off for you; i use line charts if candle charts are not available or appropriate
I use candles too, vertically. Horizontally lines work well The concern was on volatility crush risk, as that payoff looked too good. I monitored it and it did lose value after the open and post NFP on volatility drop (long legs). The combo went from approx 60$ premium to 50$ mid. Then recovered for a few dollar profit when Spx gave back today's gain.
Well you would've made some money on the short straddle. I believe the premium for the combo might have been around 56 at EOD yesterday, so for 1 contract, the premiums would've been $5,600, assuming you held it to the end and not closing the position early, from assignment in the form of cash settlement, you would've made $(56 -20 ) = $3600 for 1 contract. Not bad for a NFP day. Totally forgot it's NFP today.
From the short legs yes, but I think the long legs would be at a loss of around 50$, so the total for the combo would be negative for about 14$, approx market close estimation: (59.40 open - 34.40 close) X2 - 36 (stradlle)