Am I lucky?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by forex_trader_ez, May 5, 2008.

  1. Hi All.

    I wanted to hear your feed back on my trading style and performance.

    My Background:

    I work as a senior executive for a trading software firm for more then 5 years (develops software for Futures & FX)
    Over the course of my work I have been exposed to both computerized and discretionary trading styles and systems (with all kinds of frequency)
    I have paper traded for the last 3 years FX and Futures and played around with all kind strategies (short term swing and longer term).
    For the last year I have been consistent trading the method that I will describe below (not sure if it classifies as day trading or swing).
    With a staring balance of $40K virtual money have I have grown my DEMO account to over $800K in one year using 33X leverage and risking 2.5% of capital per open position.
    I trade 12 pairs.
    I hold a position for 24 hours (or until my Stop loss or profit target are hit, and then revaluate my position.

    I opened a LIVE account with FXCM 1 month and half ago with $40K.
    Until today trading the same style I do for paper I am up $24K on this account (using 33X leverage).

    My strategy is simple price action, using some SMA and EMA (but relaying on price action)

    I start looking at a 4H chart looking for key support and resistance levels of the last 2-3 weeks.
    Then I move to a 1H Chart to place my Stop and Limits. In general I look for 40-50 stop and 80+ profit objectives.
    I don’t use the "classic" 1 to 3 ratio …
    In general I get "hit " with the stops on a third (4) of the pairs (loss) and manage to make at least 40 pips on another 4 and hit homeruns on the remaining (90+ pips)

    Let me know what are your feed backs
  2. paper trading is just nothing. because the loss is not real.

    from your descrition, you used technical anlylsis to form your trading strategy.

    I think technical anaylysis/chart really worth nothing. I doubt if you can survive merly based on support/resistance trading if you do not have any fundamental trading reasons.

    trading is not a casino machine. that is why 90% of those so called traders fail

  3. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Sorry that you were one of the 90% that failed using them.

    And to the OP, keep doing what you are doing. I trade forex on a 30min and a 3 hour also using S&R. Forex is one of the most trendy markets and this type of trading has been going on for a longgggg time. Enjoy it, make your $.
  4. If your system works good on the demo it "should" as well on a live account. You just have to remember that on the demo your fills are less realistic and you don't have the emotional element involved, which happens to be the most important aspect to any system.

    As far as your chosen style, price action based on sup/res is about all you need to make money. Keep it simple.

    Considering you put 3 years into finding a strategy that works for you, I would not call your success luck. Just don't get over confident or cocky. The market has a funny way of picking on those people.
  5. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    Demo systems will work, but you have to note that psychology can interfere with making a profit or loss.

    I don't think there is alot of revenge trading paper losses.

    Also, real trading is a little more spikey but I heard that was true on es as well as forex.

    Finally, you need to know how to use money management so you are not affected as much by a black swan.

  6. kudos on your success.

    don't mind the regular ET riff-raff. They couldn't tell a winning system from a losing system even if their life depended on it.

    You also didn't post nonsense such as describing your profits in % annualized returns or xR, which means, mentally you're on the right track.