Discussion in 'Stocks' started by jackstone54, May 1, 2008.
SFLY BX CAL Q KFT WU
This is my longer term long portfolio right now...
What do you think?
How did you pick'em. Look at their 2 year charts. Bottom fishing or flat. Don't meet my basic criteria "If it aint going up.DON'T BUY IT. Short term maybe, but don't put them away in your safety deposit box.From an observer who never intends to hold blindly. I would watch these carefully. Just my 2 cents.
Where is the spy triple top at 138?
My long term equity strategy is to buy stocks that I believe will double in the next 12-24 months. I dont "trade" with equity holdings. I only trade with long dated in the money calls/puts on indexes. Sometimes I entertain myself with calls/puts on equity positions through small plays, but I do better with index direction.
I insure all of the below trades with puts by the way to protect from downside.
SFLY - I was waiting for it to get back down to the 12-13 level. Im fairly confident of their business model. I actually use shutterfly a lot and am a big fan. I know this selloff was overdone. Its trading right now at 14 and I have made money today initiating a position at 12.85.
BX- The trend has changed. Hedgefunds actually tend to do fairly well in questionable economic environments.
CAL- I believe the trend has changed in oil. CAL is the best of breed and I feel confident with them. For those who like risk, then AMR might be a better bet.
Q- I believe this segment of the industry has bottomed. Q is a riskier play then VZ though. People who want to play it safe will like VZ.
KFT- I want to follow Buffet into this trade.
WU - I feel Western Union will break out of this consolidation phase. The last conference call indicates a lot of growth in China and India. I must admit, this one will probably take more time, but I believe the time has come...
I trade in cal , too .
you have no commodity exposure - no steel, ag, coal, gold............nothing
if you feel that trade is spent - fair enough
as per your "oil short" as i'll call CAL - why not buy DUG or short USO? Oil and airlines may be a perfect negative correlation trade when oil rips, but there is no assurance it will stay that way when oil reverses. Thats speculation as well.
another question i have is - why do you care about being diversified? if you wanted diversification you could do that with about 8 etfs and be very well diversified - across several asset classes. but you've got a portfolio that seems very dependent on your timing ability more than anything else. it looks like you want to be a stock picker rather than reducing risk. which is fine. but if you want real diversification limited to an equity brokerage account - you need to check out the offerings in ETF land - new ones pop up every day.
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