Am I a genius or a fool

I CAN double my prt in 6 trades, BUT should I

Guys, even though I know none of you, and no one here knows me.

We all know each others story, we go through hope and pain and in the end some of us start consistently profiting.

Because we all go through same things really, I trust your opinions.

I am confident with my trading, my accuracy is 80%, I can double portfolio in month and a half, with about 15 trades, (I trade futures by the way)

So why don’t I take greater margin and double my portfolio in 6 trades.

Does that sound really crazy, or am I just being logical here.

my current account is 30 k Why not make it 60 in 6 carefully placed trades

I am sure many of you wandered the same thing

 

by the way a little gift for you all

Wanna hear something very interesting.

I just figured out how vantage point software works

This is a company that claims 80% accuracy of their predictions using two lines that seem like moving average lines but more accurate,

Well I always found it a bit weird, why would they prefer commodities, metals.

Gold coffee etc

Well it turns out they are using two moving average lines.

One is simple 10 MA line

And second is 5 day exponential MA line.

Their entire software is based on these two lines,

These lines are not very useful on high volatility stocks.

But if you apply these lines to coffee, or pork bellies, you get very nice consistent predictions indeed,

Well I guess I won’t be paying 2000 for their software.

 

My answer to the title of this thread is:
genius or fools are very close to each other; a slight difference in tradingstyle can turn a genius into a fool and vice versa.

About the lower margins: the more experience you have as a trader the less you will ask this question. Greed has always been a bad advisor. Find the balance between risk and return and keep yourself to that ratio.

I know a trader who doubles his portfolio each week. But he limits his risk by limiting the amount of money he uses in trading. After 1 week he has made enough money to start again if he would ever wipe out his account. That's a sound balance between risk and return although he is highly leveraged. And in the meantime he made enough profit to be able to wipe out his account 50 times and still have more money than he had when he started trading. This way of trading is very relaxed and comfortable, a factor that is very important in live, and maybe more important than trying not to miss a penny in the market.

If you want all the market can give you at the highest leverage possible you have more chances to end up broke, crazy in a madhouse or to commit suicide. Don't forget to live. Doubling your money in six weeks gives you all the possibilities to enjoy your live; don't ruin it.


The harder you run, the harder you can get hurt when you stumble.

 

on second look, two MA lines not worth the trouble.

vantage point is just another wize trade bull

 

I recommend with all sincerity that you take out a home equity loan, draw down your credit card cash limits, take out all the unsecured personal loans you can, hock what is valuable, borrow from your family and friends, drain your checking/savings, close out any 401K's/IRA's, put all that money into one of those futures brokerages that charges only $500 a car, and go for it. In exchange for my fine advice, would you please bring all that liquidity to NQ on Monday?

 

If you can double your account with either "6 carefully placed trades" or 15 not-so-careful trades then why do you still only have 30k in your account?

 

I understand what you are saying hypostomus or whatever

that is my initial reaction as well, not to increase margin.

but with all due respect my goal is not to just make money but make BIG money.

let me ask you a question, if a trader trades for lets say 12 years and is hitting 65% accuracy and is overall profitable

why exactly won't that trader increase margin and keep strategy unchanged.

this isn't 1980s people we have to make money fast.

2006 and on will be tough life

 

to answer GTS

I started with 2 grand about 8 months ago

did research for 3 years

 

You would need to post more then just your win probability to answer your question about optimal position sizing.

Why don't you play around with this and see if it helps : http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

 

I have lived around this for 19 years...lets just say you are a genius...then what? Your handle indicates you are trading patterns. I have seen this type of work before and in longer time frames they are reliable...I tried once to trade patterns and failed miserably in a Journal here.

Doubling and redoubling so fast, does not seem realistic to me, but I suppose anything is possible. If you really can do this then this makes you the greatest trader on earth and soon to be the richest man.

I suggest you keep a low profile and spread out your money to many different brokerages....stop posting here under this handle and change your handle immediately. Lose "now and then" to fool the house if you think you are being watched.

Do not buy cars and houses and bank your money in several banks. Do your own taxes and pay them quarterly. Do not tell family or relatives about your money. Tell the kids there is no money for the will. You will get used to "the lifestyle" and it becomes second nature to you, everybody is on the take. If you start to move often and wear disguises, seek therapy as this is an overkill, but tell the therapist that your money is all an illusion, never tell ANYBODY.

Your sitting on a boiling pot of water and it may not last forever. I sincerely hope for you that your ATM machine lasts and you have time to amass what you think you need.