I really don't want this to be another "trading is a waste of time thread" but more of a reflection on my experience while looking for honest opinions. Results are everything and Circumstances reveal you to yourself... - In 2019 I was unemployed and decided to pursue my dreams of being a trader. I invested HUNDREDS of hours in instructional videos while reading several books on trading. I deposited ~$75k from my savings to trade with, (already had some long term positions in my account equaling ~$25k). - The results: I will spare you the details of what trades fucked me the most and get down to business...my income for 2019 is around -$20k (negative twenty thousand dollars). Im not 100% sure on the exact amount as i haven't gotten my annual statement but its ballpark. I honestly have no clue what to even do with that...my CPA is going to slap me across the nipples when he sees this shit. The question i have wrestled with for months now is: Should I throw trading away since i obviously suck so bad at it and pursue something else...or dump more effort and energy into it? I lurk mostly here and see so few people actually making it at trading it is discouraging. and then i wonder if those few who are making big money...did they get their initial millions via trading at home? My inability to make a decision and move forward either way is a weakness and has completely crippled me. On one hand i want to be a trader on the other I doubt the possibility. I have spent so much time meditating on the pursuit of what is meaningful: what would i like to make a living doing more so than trading, only to come up blank. I am curious what the ET community has to say after reading my embarrassing story. I am especially curious to hear from any members who are making consistent annual profits. thanks
Did you have a plan for how long you'd go before you do something else? If not, then that's your mistake.
Without knowing your age or your financial situation, it is impossible to advise. But don't beat yourself up too much. You took your shot, and your losses, unlike many others, were not devastating. If you continue trading, the next few years are likely to look like the last year, until (if) it clicks for you. That's just the name of the game. And if you decide to go in another direction - which is probably wise - you can continue to develop your trading skills and your knowledge off line.
No man I didn’t. I was 100% convinced going in that it would work out for me. I have traded physical goods successfully my entire adult life that I felt this was a natural progression to success...admittedly my naivety got the better of me.
I'd consider myself a moderately successful trader; I put in years of effort and I was never able to unearth any extraordinary speculative system. But I got familiar enough to comfortably double the risk adj. performance of most benchmarks. And learned how to manually control and adjust risk/exposure. Which is honestly where more of the long-term returns come from in my opinion. How much risk you have on. I still feel like I'm getting better every year so who knows what more time will bring. Anyway, that being said I still think there is zero reason to forgo getting paid for some form of labor in this day and age, if you can't live off the standard 3% yield from your capital yet. Closest thing to risk-free money out there; especially if you have some intelligence and work ethic. You've got to be a 1 in 1000 trader or better if you are going to make enough to outperform the effects of having a job on your long-term wealth accumulation. And if you were that kind of trader you wouldn't be here asking this question in the first place. You can continue to fiddle around if chasing a dream means that much to you but if you want to get wealthy just put your head down and pile money into places that will compound it. Continue to tinker in your spare time and at least it won't cost you anything.
They say 90% of traders end up failing. That should open your eyes. Trading is a serious business and not just a hobby. If you wanted to be a surgeon for instance, how much education and training would that require? Yet, people with more monies than common sense expect instant success as a trader? Most people do not even expend enough effort to understand and learn how to be successful as a trader yet, expect to excel and be experts at it? Remember too, you are trading against the very best traders including, the best hedge fund managers out there with hundreds of millions or even billions in funds to trade. And you do not even take the time to learn to trade? A glimmer of hope maybe, but, those very good traders lined up against you learned to trade too just like you. Most of them lost all their monies too at the start. So, how did they become successful? They had the sense to learn from their mistakes and had the discipline to avoid those same trading mistakes over and over again. Victor Sperandeo, a top trader said you can afford to do the right things as a trader 80% of the time and still be successful trading. We are all human and will still make mistakes. That is a given. However, most of what you are doing trading should be 80% correct. Trading mistakes only cost you monies and opportunity.
I don't know what it means to trade physical goods but there is no point feeling dejected. Just do what you need to do.
Just going to throw my random thoughts out there: 1) What are your monthly expenses? Do you have a wife and kids to to support? In my opinion, anyone who must make more than 2% per month on their trading account is under enormous pressure and will struggle to trade objectively, and is far less likely to succeed. 2) If you suffer from "if it wasn't for that one bad trade per month where I lose my discipline, then I would be profitable", then my advice for you would be to get the hell away from futures and stocks, and instead start trading options.....there is no free lunch in the options markets either, but it is possible to structure trades where you actually have real max overnight loss limits in the options markets - which is impossible to do that if you are holding positions overnight in stocks and futures....and if you do not have real overnight max loss limits, you have zero chance to succeed. Your psychological capital and actual capital will not be able to take the constant surprise mega losses. 3) Trying to make consistent money trading, is like trying to make consistent money playing competitive chess with guys in your local city park. For a while, you will lose to better players. It is to be expected. 4) Are you backtesting ideas? When you put on a trade, do you have an idea about the expectancy/probability of that trade? Because you are competing against computers that do. If you are not quantifying your methods, you cannot compete in modern markets. I know that is not an answer to your question, but I think those are topics that you need to address before you can answer the question for yourself.
Depends what you expect from it. If you are over optimistic about it then yes. If the reality turns out to be better than anticipated, Then you ain’t a fool. Speculation is a business with its pros and cons. But a business has to be 1. Profitable 2. Bearable If you got an edge and a sound risk management, Then you might have a business down here. To be serious, It requires some capital (Safety) It requires some tinkering (Discovery) It requires some plan and discipline (Implementation) Flipping stuffs is way less risky than trading. There’s no common grounds but buy low, sell high. Everything else is different.
I'm unsure of how anyone can make it work with that attitude. "Give it a shot" prepares one to fail, that's my view anyway. OP needs a clear plan, the "core" of which should be profitable over longer term. Hoping it works out isn't a plan.