The question here is what is the probability of the dollar stop being hit. Not the 50/50 outcome of the 5 point move. 50/50 for a 5 point move in one direction without retracements...then you might have something.
ohhh..so now all the Elite BrainChilds are going to throw a 14 day RSI and a 200 day ma on the thing and claim victory...it aint that easy to keep up with the Jones ...
little less academic than Maslov and Zhang. But a similar approach. http://www.amazon.com/How-Make-Stoc...ef=sr_1_1/102-0584608-5772918?ie=UTF8&s=books
Position Sizing is the key but how do you position size your winning side and losing side of the same contract optimally? Anyone wants to discuss and improve on AntiMartingale/adaptive scaling or spread oscillation(STARS) methods?
You are barking up the wrong tree devoting so much time to Magic Money Manipulation Schemes. Your current ideas are based on fallacious concepts. It would be better to focus on: 1. Why do I have an advantage on the trade itself AND 2. Can I easily afford the risk I am taking? Of course your exit strategy should be well defined. No successful traders I know think the way you currently do. Certainly Sorros ( who I do not know) does not. HOWEVER, discussing your ideas is a great way to learn and grow.
@ scalpmaster IMHO, the problem is not that you canât find algorithms producing spectacular returns. The problem is to find algorithms producing spectacular returns after transaction costs. There are properties of prices that can be exploited algorithmically but commissions and slippage can make the effort very difficult. @777 There are some successful professionals that base their trading methods on mm algorithms. Ed Thorp comes to mind first.
I have algos that can give me almost certain profit when daytrading. They use statisitcs such as standard diviation, ect Anyone who tells you markets are random is wrong.
i thought that statistics explained/identified non-directional volatility (ie, std dev). how are you using that to predict direction?
Did you ever buy it? Looks like one of those correlation systems where you go long x number of one index and short y number of another index and then wait until your position randomly becomes net positive and then exit