I think always in works better, if it is going to work, with trend following indicators. The moving averages and the MACD are two such tools that are applicable to an always in strategy.
profitseer, If you want to trade an always in system you can use the "oddball system" http://www.oddballsystems.com big drawdowns but profitable
this is posted on talkstox.com - but site is down - so I will post it from my hard drive The 30/34 System is a swing-type system for trading the S&P E-minis. Signals are taken from a 30 minute chart of the ES with a 34 EMA. The 30/34 System rules are as follows: 1. Enter in the direction of the closing price whenever a closing bar CLOSES above/below the EMA by at least 1 full point (.99 doesn't count). The bar must be CLOSED. Penetrations that do not close 1+ point above/below the EMA DO NOT COUNT. 2. Crash stop is 5 points above/below the EMA and always take profits at the profit objective. 3. The profit objective will change depending on market volatility as measured by the last 3 months maximized theoretical profit. It is currently at +38. Note: in the time I have been monitoring this system on Woodie's, the profit objective has varied from 30-40 points. 4. The system is always in the market (including overnite) except when you have just taken profits and are waiting for the next entry. 5. New traders should wait for a theoretical drawdown of 35-40 points before starting to use the 30/34 since it has had a drawdown of -90 points and several in the - 60 point range in the past 6 years. 6. The 30/34 is a SAR (stop and reverse) system. Always take the SAR. The only other variables are closing out at the profit objective or getting stopped out at 5 points from the EMA. The SAR always rules though. 7. Only RTH (real-time hours) data is used. "gb" Comments: Both June and July were 100+ months. I usually recommend the system for new traders as it helps them stay in the game while honing their daytrading skills. The average profit is just a little over $100/day based on a single contract, not as good as an experienced trader. In the past six years, its minimum gain has been +500. I suggest new traders trade the 30/34 in a separate account and start with $10k to avoid exiting from fear, emotion, etc. Do you SAR if the 5 pt stop isn't taken out, but the 30 minute bar closes above or below the EMA by more than a point? Yes, the signal of 1 point above/below the 34 EMA rules. The stop is only a "crash" stop. Backtests This system has been backtested and posted to Yahoo Groups by "zx". These are available as Excel spreadsheets and appear to have been generated with Tradestation. Go to http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HD_RDforDummies/ and look under Files/Swing Trade Systems. They are listed as 30-34_5pt_30pt.XLS and 30-34_8pt_44pts.XLS. Risk I suggest you never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any individual trade. You might live to trade another day.
doher...very nice of you to post that method. It is not surprising that the method did very nicely in the months of june and july, they were very trending months. Methods that rely on price crossing a moving average for entry - my favorites - do very well during trending periods. My guess is - before looking - August and much of September were not as good, perhaps even negative. I'll be interested to see, in fact, if the middle two weeks of September were particulary good as well. Thanks again doher.
doher - Since I am the one who has taken the trouble to gather and post this information on behalf of and for the benefit of the participants in Woodies Paltalk room, I am disturbed to find it duplicated here in whole on Elite Trader. You simply have no right to do so.
I wouldn't worry about it jasper, trading price closing across a moving average is nothing new. I have been doing it for the last three years. I use stocks instead of futures, and a 40 instead of 34, and an SMA instead of EMA. All you futures guys like the EMA. Just one more way to skin a cat.
That's hardly the point. It's one thing to post a URL to another site, it's quite another to start copying information verbatim and posting it elsewhere.
If it's copyrighted material, you've got a valid beef. But if it's not copyrighted (and just because someone compiles information and posts it to a website intending it for a limited target group doesn't grant an automatic copyright) - forget it, that's just the way it is in the fast lane (or for those using dialup, the not so fast lane).
"I am disturbed" -imho - an honest self-assessment ======================= So your pissed off that I posted "GB's" method to Elite. First of all it is NOT YOUR system. I never claimed that it was my system. Secondly, it's posted on a public website for all to use. Thirdly - I would have posted the URL - but Talkstox - was down - for part of weekend as it was migrating to a new server. Fourth - is this copyrighted material by gb? Fifth- what are your damages? Sixth - I posted the link to http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HD_RDforDummies. Do you think someone who "actually" contributes to Talkstox - like my buddy Nicktrader would would be miffed - if I duplicated one of his posts here? Also Woodie prides himself - in teaching new traders "HIS" system. If Woodies was proprietary - the room would not be free and he would not allow his system to be posted on a public stock site. "Have a nice day" oops that might be copyrighted! doher