Congrats on the gains. Can you also entertain us on how many gaps you took and lost in? Don't mean to be rude, i just would like to know the other side of the story...
I thought I might as well give my 2 cents worth also. I am a fader, I fade moves almost everyday. I was even shorting WFC (well fargo ) today for some nice profits and it was up over 30%. Its not the only one I faded today but it shows that a strong move up is sometimes the BEST time to short. The trick of course is to know when to put your chips in the middle and when to take them out. Want to see results? take a look at my journal. you can see the good the bad and the ugly of someone that fades the market every day. I just finished up a small trade in the Hong Kong HSI which was up over 600 points when I shorted it. Fading CAN be profitable just as trend following can be profitable. I guess even a market that is not moving can be profitable as well (think writing options). Keep your mind open and explore new ways of finding opportunity and trading gets to be a lot more fun and profitable. Best of trading
A B F A always B be F fading Always be fading ALWAYS BE FADING A I D A Attention Interest Decision Action Attention -Do I have your attention? Interest- are you interested because it's fuck or walk Decision - HAVE YOU MADE YOUR DECISION FOR CHRIST? And Action
Cool I look foward to following your journal. I am trying to become more proficient at that style because some days it is just the best way to go.
Here is when to fade a gap . Osip closes at $38.14 then opens the next day at $84.60. Runs up to $98 then closes at $91. Can't hold the next day and evantually slides back to the $30's. 29-Apr-04 75.41 78.10 72.86 73.83 10,223,800 73.83 28-Apr-04 81.46 81.54 74.05 76.55 17,316,800 76.55 27-Apr-04 90.90 93.29 82.80 84.25 23,267,400 84.25 26-Apr-04 84.60 98.70 77.00 91.10 59,418,400 91.10 23-Apr-04 38.66 39.14 37.94 38.14 1,305,000 38.14
I am horrible at trend trading, spent the decade of 1980's of the "Trend is your Friend", it was more like an evil Fiend. So I went the other direction, and if you do something long enough, you learn it whether you want to or not. But I think what is important is to specialize. Many young traders jump around almost everyday, different indicators, timeframes, don't know which way is up. I find that seeking highs to sell, lows to buy, even if I am right only 40% whether longer term trading or day trading, if profits are only 3 to 1, I will come out on top. I have been trading S&P's since 1986, it makes recurring patterns, it is one of the best markets to trade, it backfills 85% of the time. It has an expansion bar then many times a backfill bar. As far as selling Crude at the highs, you betcha, but best way to do this is for every contract sold, buying two call options as a short term hedge.
Betting on coin tosses is an efficient market (if the coin is good). Are financial markets efficient? Saying "Trend following doesn't work" is like saying "Markets are efficient and on average one can't outperform the SP500".
First, let me preface this by saying that there are many things that can work in trading, and the method part is the easiest part to figure out, and its the discipline to carry out your method with consistency that is always the hardest part, (for many reasons beyond the scope of this post) That said, if you have found a way to "fade" effectively then there is nothing further to discuss, because there is no one correct way to trade. That said, here is my view on "trading with the trend" Every market is trending in a variety of timeframes at the same time. A longer timeframe can be be moving up while a shorter timeframe can be moving down at the same time Therefore a very good trend trading approach is to trade in the direction of a bigger picture trading trend, using the fading condition of the smaller timeframes that make up the bigger timeframe When I read a statement "the market is in a range 80% of the time, and trends 20% of the time, I know someone is referring to just "one" timeframe (perhaps the overall day timeframe), but by my way of thinking "every single timeframe is moving with some direction at all times," and I base my entire trading plan around that premise. As Ive mentioned in other threads here on Elite, I am equally here to provide intersting thoguhts on trading from the way it works for me, as much as I am here to work with any trader that may be looking for a consistent approach to trading. But, for the sake of this discussion only, if you look at my track record of every single trade that sets ups with a "going with the trend approach" (found at TradingCreations), I think you will see that trading with the trend can be a very effective way to trade, along with anything else that might work.