This chart from the Fed explains it all: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CBI The change in private inventories drove the severity of the so-called "Great Recession". Now the rebuilding of private inventories is going to drive the severity of growth that we are about to see.
I read an article from Altucher months ago that said nearly the same thing. Something like "Ignore the negativity, the market is going up.." So who's been right? Yep, JA. I'm as bearish as anybody, but after months and months of running ETF shorting strategies I think I'm finally getting the hint. As long as there are no hugely negative world events, and interest rates stay low, money is going into the market. It might be a trickle, or maybe a final mad rush later this year or next. After most are in and rates and inflation start to rise, THEN the freakin market MIGHT go down. This steady up/lack of volatility is killin' me...
People say "the trend is your friend". But I can also have too many friends. there's too many lines on that graph. And if I want, I can make plenty of lines suggesting an uptrend. Its hard to read those things and derive any conclusions.
i'm ;looking short term, we have had 140 spx points up since feb 5, edit longer term that trans graph is a massive shoulder ,head , and half of a right shoulder
Sure, we're going to have pullbacks throughout. Just like in 2003. But the longer-term trend appears to be in place now both for the economy and the markets.
James, my comment about your stockpickr site being a sieve was accurate, I suggested that anything involving actual important data would be absurd, because the site was flawed. I could care less if all 4 billion people got on to stockpickr. Your comments about the steel industry rebuilding courtesy the inventory cycle story is also pathetic, because I own a structural steel service business that has done work for large steel firms, and they are all slow. I don't you know who feeds you this information but its dead wrong. US Steel is probably going to drop 15 bucks after its earnings on April 26th.
I've been recommending Reliance Steel in both my writings and on CNBC. Check out the Barrons article this weekend on Reliance to see what metrics have been going up in a straight line for that company. RS is more of a general barometer on the health of the industry than X is. In terms of Stockpickr, I think many people found it useful for generating ideas, as well as getting answers for many of their investment questions. Otherwise they wouldn't've kept coming back to it. i was proud of the site and happy also when thestreet.com bought it.