Altucher- Bears ae dead wrong, S&P to 1300 in 2010

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Clubber Lang, Mar 29, 2010.

  1. his stockpickr site was getting 1000s of users and a couple of times i would log on into other peoples accounts, just by logged into my own.

    It was a poorly designed p.o.s software and i emailed them a few times about it and nothing happened, so then i emailed the people whose account i had viewed inside and messaged them and still got nothing.

    Hopefully that site isn't tied to a broker or anything - it was a sieve.
     
  2. S2007S

    S2007S

    Thats my question, when does a "permabull" ever have a lower price target for the S$P, for instance his is 1300 in 2010, ok, the s$p gets to 1320, does he now raise it to 1450? I remember the bullish calls going forward into 2008 as the dow was making new highs in 2007, no one ever thought the markets would drop 50% over the next 18 months, now were back in rally mode and each time they interview some bull they are talking about new highs. Do they even know the amount of intervention set forth into this market that has propped it up to 10,000+??
     
  3. Vishnu

    Vishnu

    First off, i'm not just bullish on the markets but on stocks as well. Last year at the bottom I was recommending at thestreet.com stocks like GNW (at a dollar), TGB (at 1.80), STEC (at 6), AGO (at 9), etc and even in October, 2008 i was recommending GS at 100 and FCX at 60.

    Better to be bullish than to be short the market at Dow 7500 which most other pundits were apparently doing at that time.

    Ultimately bulls make money in the long run (Buffett put $20bb to work in October 2008. He was too early but it paid off).

    And, btw, Stockpickr was not linked to a broker and was getting over 1mm unique visitors per month at its peak (when I was still there).

    -James Altucher
     
  4. This only works so long as the leverage game continues. In my opinion, it is THAT game that is near the end. And then you might just never see a Dow 14000 print again in your lifetime if no one is allowed to be levered to any significant degree.
     
  5. Buffett was only 5 month to early... something to think about.. 5 months from the bottom. That's crazy...
     
  6. Vishnu

    Vishnu

    No, my bullishness has nothing to do with leverage or any other dynamics of trading.

    Its has to do with the fact that inventories fell to a century low and now all evidence suggests we are in a massive rebuilding phase. This catapult earnings on the S&P 500 to about $120+ a share in the next few years which ultimately will catapult the market.
     
  7. "better to be a bull than bear"? What a POS. His argument of many stocks having gone up 200% does not make any sense whatsoever, without mentioning which base those percentages are calculated off. Almost all those stocks are still way lower than beginning of 2008 levels no matter they went up 100 or 500% since March 2009.

    Inventory rebuild? Are you smoking gansha? Dude, if you think this is the primary driver since March 2008 and also the one gonna go forward then you really seem to have missed pretty much every major theme in financial markets.

    In my opinion the major issues we have dealt with since March 09 are the massive amounts of paper that have been printed and used to prop up markets, still strong growth numbers out of China (whether engineered or not), relaxation in credit markets. Those are the very same issues that will determine EVERYTHING going forward.

    Markets could not care less about inventory rebuilds. Also, with 9.7% unemployed, markets really dont care about part time working hours or average hourly salaries.

    Its all gonna be about
    a) consumer spending (mostly driven by unemployment, interest rates, credit conditions)
    b) budget deficits
    c) inflation and interest rates

     
  8. Vishnu

    Vishnu

    Well, I gave the base for all of those. Thats where they were when I first recommended them.
     
  9. Ok, but how do you expect earnings to catapult to the levels you're referring to without the consumer? Because the consumer is toast.
     
    #10     Apr 4, 2010