Have you done any stats test yourself, it's not that diffcult at all, you know? Instead of just relying on experts, and other source of authority( guy who blew up couple of times), I think it will improved our un-informed discussion if we put the numbers on the table. There are nNumerous of random walk test that can be performed. Hurst exponents, variance ratio, runs test... Mean reversion and trend follwing are opposite sides of the same coin. The market drift in and out of these two phase, trend and reversals. As a "trend" follower and a mean reversion trader, I will say that both will make money in different environments. If you are lazy to do the test, I think we can just look at recent charts of gold, silver, copper, sugar.... I would suggest that strong proponents of mean reversion such as altucher ..or yourself go SHORT it cuz it's definitely going back to the mean very soon, I am sure it's going to be very profitable... I just think it's important to keep a open mind, and i think that's the essense of the scientific method, it's easy to talk about the virtruals of the science method but it's hard to be scientific. Your methodology determines your results and your assumptions determines your conclusions. Virtually every model in acadmeic finance "science" is still base on the assumption of the random walk, how empirical is that? I guess Niederhoffer DARE NOT say all these phds,nobel price winners are not using the scientific method, and they are just basing their theories on market "myths". The scientifc method, depending on its specifications, can be just as misleading as other market myths...like trend following...
I reviewed the TF book on amazon and gave it a lukewarm (3 star) rating. My review stayed on amazon's website for less than two days and then was COMPLETELY DELETED. Not just shoved off into the "other reviews" screens, it was totally removed. Gone forever. Other people reported the same thing had happened to them and called amazon. Apparently amazon sometimes grants to authors, the ability to edit reviews (!!), which Mr. Covel did quite frequently. It seems he is quite thin-skinned and cannot stand to be criticized, even mildly. In America this is called "being a wimp".
This guy has manipulated the google ranking so that any one searching for trend following or anything to do with trends or anything related to famous traders will find his site. See this http://www.sorostrading.com/ You will find many such examples of sites directly or indirectly all owned by same person. All of them show up within the first 20 search results on Google. Try searching for George Soros Paul Tudor Jones Bruce Kovner Victor Niederhoffer James Altucher Some one should complain to google because it is violation of Google policies.
Business Strategy at Michael Covel Web Sites The business strategy utilized at the web sites turtletrader.com, michaelcovel.com and trendfollowing.com was developed internally over 10 years by Marylebone Holdings. Marylebone Holdings uses an intimate understanding of web strategy and marketing to reach readers across 130+ countries.
I personally agree Covel's book is best used as a paper weight or as kindling, but why is this a "Violation" on Google? Google cares about AD revenue, period. I suppose Waxie in the first place spot on Google is another issue with you!
It is called google bombing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_bomb Here are google guidelines for webmaster. http://www.google.com/webmasters/guidelines.html Number of sites have been dropped by google because of such practices. Google essentially sets the rank to 0 once enough people complain and if after investigation they are convinced. If you believe that another site is abusing Google's quality guidelines, please report that site at http://www.google.com/contact/spamreport.html. Google prefers developing scalable and automated solutions to problems, so we attempt to minimize hand-to-hand spam fighting. The spam reports we receive are used to create scalable algorithms that recognize and block future spam attempts.
Thanks Guru! I did not realize the GOOG protocol. I say BAN Covel for polluting the internet and Barnes & Nobel! Cheers
Some irony: if you search for Trade Like a Hedge Fund on Amazon, you'll get one of those Amazon special combo offers: Better Together Buy this book with Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets by Michael W. Covel today!
Simple inquiry for Altucher, no sarcasm. Classic trend following is arguably an evolutionarily stable strategy because the fewer practitioners there are, the better it works. When trend followers run into big trouble, it is usually after a period of sustained outperformance that has caused a flood of new capital to jump on the bandwagon. So with that said, trend following as a core strategy can certainly go through long stretches of severe underperformance. It may well be 'enhanced' in future, but how could it ever 'disappear.' The less popular trend following becomes, the more profitable it becomes. And there will always be commercials / institutionals in the markets with participation motives other than speculative profit. From a philosophical perspective, it seems to me that trend following shares a few important conceptual traits with value investing. (Speaking of which, how about Buffett drawing a crowd of 24,000 and hanging out with the Desperate Housewives. The man has become a perpetually overvalued rock star, his own worst nightmare.) Anyway, back to TF and Value: both strategies work best when they are deeply out of favor; both are shite, or at least very tough, when there are too many players with skin in the game; and both are robust, long cycle disciplines that will wax and wane in the short to intermediate term. So what am I missing here? p.s. why do you guys hate Michael Covel so much? Maybe he's a jerk or a creep, but such creatures abound in the trading biz. The anti-Covel passion is oddly palpable, almost cult-like... as if he were the second coming of Cthulhu or something. Maybe an all-purpose frustration proxy, suitable for burning in mental effigy.