Althucher guesses: trend funds to disappear within the next 10 years...

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by marketsurfer, Mar 27, 2006.

  1. This is an interesting discussion...

    What's behind their (JWH, Dunn etc) drawdowns? Does anyone here know? Oil, metals and most commodities have been on a bull trend for a few years..so what gives? Are they betting that the higher order trend in these is still down? or are they getting chopped up due to larger swings which make them buy high and they puke at the lows and then make them jump back in again at worse prices? I just am having a hardtime believing that it has been a bad time for trendfollowers.


    thanks for the link.
    I looked up iasg.com, there are a few funds listed for JWH..which one is his main fund? and for Dunn?
     
    #91     Apr 5, 2006
  2. I think this a chapter. Also, stocks are dead and commodities like gold and oil are it. cha cha
     
    #92     Apr 5, 2006
  3. Hey Surfer,

    How is IntrendX doing? You promised performance updates and I haven't seen any.

    Thanks

    5yr
     
    #93     Apr 5, 2006
  4. Where and how do you think Fitschen screwed up the most?
     
    #94     Apr 5, 2006

  5. quite well, thank you. still very small with 2 very private partners--but so far so good this year. still building a useable track record, operation since jan 1 2006.

    when we reach critical mass, the audited performance will be reported.

    surfer
     
    #95     Apr 5, 2006
  6. Trend-following is still in my portfolio of strategies.
     
    #96     Apr 5, 2006
  7. bubbrubb

    bubbrubb

    Diode, these statements are incorrect:

    "It's fairly well known that trend-following works in most markets... with the notable exception of equities"

    google columbine to see quite a bit of work on mid term momentum in equities. . .

    " (and equity indexes)."

    goto www.fundadvice.com for a number of backtests
     
    #97     Apr 6, 2006
  8. The kitschen?
     
    #98     Apr 6, 2006
  9. gm120

    gm120

    Dunn has a website. If you go there, you will see that for some reason Dunn trades Interest Rates, Currencies, Stock Indices and Energies. But he refuses to trade four other sectors, i.e. Softs, Metals, Meats and Grains. Also, the allocation of funds between sectors seems uneven.

    Now go to David Druz's website and look up his fund's portfolio composition and then look at his performance. Might be enlightening.
     
    #99     Apr 6, 2006
  10. One thing you will find on David Druz's website is an explanation for why he closed down his trendfollowing fund at the bottom of a ~50% drawdown, then re-opened it two and a half years later. You won't find that on Bill Dunn's website.
     
    #100     Apr 6, 2006