I know it's Great Art : a mix of realism, expressionism, impressionism, abstract symbolism, geometric, suprematism, modern luminism, futurism, surrealism, semi abstract and metaphysical
Harry, I have been admiring your nice charts for a long time now but I never managed to figure out what the figures in the many colored fields mean. Could you please post some explanation on this. You may have done this in the past, but sorry, I must have missed this. Thank you Harry, nononsense
An admirator of my piece of Art This is the legend http://www.econometric-wave.com/articles/4/images/education_01.gif Nevertheless the article accompanying it is not written yet so refer to the FAQs (which still needs to be illustrated so not sure you will fully understand but if you read it 10 times ... repetition is the law of success ): http://www.econometric-wave.com/faqs/1/home.html.html
10382 is the level to watch out: http://www.econometric-wave.com/elitetrader/weekly.htm?pd=1 (More comments for members probably on Monday although I said that I wouldn't do any analysis 'til end of the year so I will make an exception ... just because it is Santa Claus )
Due to problem with my bouncing email I don't have time to prepare a mailing to the 1st group so I have only posted the message for the new group. I will have only time after tomorrow to post to the first one.
Tomorrow I won't have time either before market opens so I post the copy here for those who visit the forum (for others I will send it Wednesday with the benefit of update) : Date: Mon Dec 29, 2003 4:56 am Subject: Happy New Year: don't forget to take profit soon ! Dear members, I hope you had a great year and wish you the same for the next coming year ! We had a great rally which is in fact the traditional thanksgiving effect which last up to the very first days of January so don't forget to take profit. On our model we have passed the max base of the year of 9895 which projects 16000 for 2008 or so because we don't have studied the model thorougly on the big scales so don't take it too seriously . On smaller scale there is an important resistance at 10382 (see http://ecw.jexiste.fr/weekly.html?pd=1) due to previous year static analysis and we have also just pullback from the monthly target of 10368 (http://ecw.jexiste.fr/dji_1m_031103.gif) of previous month which hasn't been done until then. So we have made a top between the two levels of 10382 and 10368, it means that bulls should now be careful. Nevertheless there are still more room since the current month has not finished yet. Since we made a top near the top projected on http://ecw.jexiste.fr/dji_1d_191203.gif at LT=10373.5 theorically (in real we made 10375) we must look on the same chart and we can see that next LT = 10383 / 10389 so that if we break higher 10389 is the level to watch. This is coherent with the 10382 level mentioned above. The potential could then be around 10422 on monthly chart http://ecw.jexiste.fr/dji_1m_191203.gif --- Our provider asks us to change the server physically, so expect some update problems during a few days. For the moment we will use http://ecw.jexiste.fr/
we made more than the monthly target of 10422 but subscribers have access to the daily scale which was higher and more precise (theo 10447.6 real 10454.29).
The model is a deterministic model not a stochastic one, the precision is better with indices that are "well controlled" by the "Big Money" or "initiates" (if I use term of Dow himself) - whoever and whatever they use to do so - that is to say that have fewer components like dji (30 components) or cac40 (40 components) than indices that have much more components like SPX. Concretely the standard error is 2 ABSOLUTE points for intraday scale (you have to use roughly 2 standard deviations to get the 95% interval; for monthly scale it is about 35 points, for example the given forecast of 10422 monthly + 35=10457 so that the new high of the year of 10455 we made two days ago was in fact just within the monthly scale standard error; amazingly it is also 35 points on monthly scale of Cac40 although cac40 is about 3000/3500 points only so error is rather fixed than relative with all indices) so that 2 points compared to the 10000 of dji is really good whereas 2 points compared to 1000 points of SPX is really awfull compared to dji on relative basis (10 times worse in percentage basis !): when dji makes about 100 hundred points of range 2 points is really negligeable, whereas 2 points on a 10 point range of SPX is not negligeable at all. So it's better to use correlation between SPX and DJI than to use SPX directly. At the moment I don't follow SPX for that reason and also because the calculation and update is a heavy process, so we will only do that later in the future, not for SPX especially but above all for stocks - for stock picking purpose and creation of synthetic indices that outperform the main indices. If I use SPX it would be rather to confirm indices one with another.