Good posts, Jack. Said with sincerity, and not sarcasm. Much like "Dune", it takes multiple viewings and several perspectives to "hear" what he is saying. And a mind that wishes to learn and not judge.
Thank icarus, I did. That fuck bait worked yet one more time. People did and will always complain ("whiners") about how long my post are. So I did four one pagers that a guy could make an ATS out of and then trade it to create a P n L. It showed a 11.1% gain every week or so. Who's sorry for you? You are just like 90% of the temporary trading retail folks. Remember when you learned to letter or do cursives? Did you learn to ride a bike? Swim? Play a team sport? Making a cocoon is a worthy learned skill with some cool associated knowledge. Posting here is just an example of a leak in your cocoon. Do you still put on ice skates? My message is indisputable. 1. There is one pattern in markets. It is flawless and there is no noise nor anomalies. Boolean algebra and Carnap's logic theory is in full bloom. 2. For trading, volume signals lead price signals. See the pattern applied to PVT and SCT. 3. How the markets work is deduced. You cannot use induction to prove the operation of the markets. In Boolean algebra, the 1's and 0's always mean the probability is 100% all the time. When you took Geometry you learned how to do deductive proofs. 4. Having a Boolean Parametric Measure in an in-kind Hypothesis Set is as good as it gets according to Keynes. So the joke about Time Magazine's editotrs and their list that included Andrew Lo of MIT, is almost priceless. Lo's uncherishble words were: "Buy and Hold don't work anymore" So cocoonicable, if I may say so. So will he ever find out what works? Will it, at least, be a little important. LOL FOS is so cool at Tech. Trudeau, last in the issue, said he didn't understand how Stephen Colbert could do what Trudeau described precisely. Colbert and I are both logicologists. We both read Time magazine as a humor magazine. Do you remember when the West travelled the spice and silk routes? Do you see how unravelling a worm's life work in the housing industry makes a silk blouse an outstanding anatomical and very spicy wrapper. Don't get Spagetti suace on your gal's blouse. Go to Denver and drop into the club called "The Mine Shaft" and find out. Have a"gunpowder" drink on me.
Dune as a paperback was a new venture in writing. It IS contagious as a movie. I am not sarcastic but I do like dryer humor as in martini's etc... Neuro science can be woven into the thought process so the truth does get stranger than fiction. I couldn't, at the time, imagine that cocoon was being built instead of a little exploring off the usual turf. This prime necessity of markets to have sand-like granularity is where the Boolean algebra extinguished probability. Dodd and Granville are just about as old as the Dow theorists. But like in calculus you can go differential or integral. Its the same with a good steak sandwich or a Sonoran desert hot dog. Dodd and Granville were the tick dogs. They recited the HS and PM so long ago. Electric cars were replaced by Ford using storable engergy. It wasn't right but it made all the magazines in advertizing. So fear, anxiety and anger rule for those who do not know how to know at all times. I kinda like the other side of the cocoon: support ,comfort and confidence that comes when you know you know all the time. And explore, too.
You misread my meaning, but I felt that upon reading the words I wrote that that would be the case. Much like in trading, we can know an outcome in advance, yet fail to take the appropriate action to avoid a negative outcome. My meaning was that after reading your posts, I found them to be well written. And I meant that I was saying that with sincerity, and not sarcasm. I was not implying that your posts were sincere rather than sarcastic, although that would be a relevant inference. The reason for that statement was that so many passive/agressive types here on ET resort to sarcasm to say what their passive side will not allow them to verbalize. My intention was merely to convey that I found your posts to be insightful, and that I meant that in a sincere way. I too enjoy a dry martini, but have taken more to the bourbon side of things of late. Something about the bite that reconnects me to my redneck roots.
By volume, are you referring to order flow (the placement of orders to enter/exit the market), or actual contracts traded?? Volume in itself is a result of price action, and is a lagging indicator. Volume is an effect, not a cause. It is a result of market direction at a given period of time, rather than a predictor. Take stop runs for example: massive volume can be generated by moving price to a certain level, followed by an immediate reversal in the direction that supply/demand is most prevalent after the vacuum that is created by the aforementioned stops is filled. The placement of orders, however, is a leading indicator, in that those orders are the summary of the collective mindset of the market on a millisecond by millisecond basis. Even artificial intelligence such as algos and HFT's is included in order flow, as they too must enter and exit the market just as humans do.
Don't we all love the internet and sites like this? Jack: One : You come to this thread and tell me I have a lot to learn. Great I hope I do, when I don't, live get's pretty boring, knowing it all. Two : You are projecting your own shortcomings to other people. You tell me, a guy with 200 post in ten years, that I'm leaking my cocoon because of my posting. Euhmmm, right, mister over 5000 posts. (Where do you find the time to make so many lengthly post?) Three : Surprise, surprise : I know your methods and what you are trying to tell other people about trading... But I aslo have the wisdom to not try it to see it as the only way to trade. Oh, by the way, what you tell and teach is something most old time floor pit traders also know. Nothing new and public knowledge if you do the research. Four : I hope the guy that has researched you, will take the time to research me, because there is some evidence of 'succes' (what is succes by the way?) due to my trading. Tip use the same handle on some exotic cars forums... Five : Get your own tread, if you have nothing constructive to say. And as a human being, I wish you all the succes you want and a healthy live.
Whatever happened to Spydertrader's attempts to trade Jack's stock method? It was so complex, it was difficult to follow, but I thought the volume-based concepts made sense. In particular, Jack had an exit trigger based on extreme volume that seemed to work very well. As i recall, his approach was to watch group of higher beta stocks, wait for them to enter a low volume consolidation phase, then attempt to buy when they confirmed an up move. Not all that different from O'Neil's CANSLIM. I lost interest in Jack when he started claiming his daytrading students were able to net several times the daily range.
CORRECTAMUNDO! Most aspiring traders question the possibility/veracity of averaging 2 ES points per day... let alone 3X the daily range.
The height of the volume bar represents contracts traded during the measured interval. Most people believe as you do. When I started out, I deduced that volume leads price. The pattern shows the V, P relationship The end effect of the pattern is the beginning of overlap with the next emerging pattern. Soon overlap ends and the new and opposite sentiment pattern is on its own giving you more profits in this ensuing segment. Since from the beginnning or my reasoning and trading, I used the finite math dictated by the markets, there was no prediction requuired. Prediction was probably introduced by people who did not always know bar by bar what was going on. As John Boyd explained about these people, they chose betting as a means of doing their routine (OODA). Performance data of such people shows dramatically their not taking the market's offer by a long shot. you can make a ratio of the market's offer to the profits of "predictors or bettors and see that they earn meagre protions of the offer. While this is just impiracle data, it strikes any thinking person that using prediction is a fool's errand. Don't predict or use a mathematics not dictated by market's operation. If you do you are leading yourself astray.