Can somebody please explain in plain English or even in Dutch for that matter , what Jack is talking about? Jack, if your best piece of posting contains 26 times the word 'f*ck' maybe it is an idea to start stop using that word and people could see your 'true' message. Or was your message not good enough to stand without that word? And don't be sorry for me, let me be in my own cocoon. I live a nice life...
Seems that no one is answering the original post, but instead are giving their own views why most traders fail. There is a tendency to seek change for improvement rather than settle for what is, that is a natural human characteristic to endeavor to improve and therefore change. In a trading context though the inability to settle on a method and to keep changing to another indicator, another charting tool i.e. to blame the tool rather than the workman i.e. oneself, just leads to a spiral of failure. There should come a point perhaps after a few blown accounts that the trader realises that they have to choose a method and then to adapt their behaviour to make that method work, i.e. the change has to come from their own way of thinking in order to become successful.
So says you, Jack! It does not exist. This backtest. If it did you would have done well to save it. I've asked you to put me in touch with those Worden Bros. My most recent is only for trading .SPX, SPY, or ES. It has nothing to do with other stocks since none of your strategies are designed for those. Where is the backtest, Jack? You've made it another figment of your imagination and created the farce to further your image several months ago when you first brought it up. <b>This 60+ sharpe ratio backtest is nowhere. Why can't you do it?</b>
That post by Jack is one of the longest if not longest post on ET ever. He should receive some award. He seems to make sense but I only understood and agree to disagree on one thing he said in his post. I may have found an error in his post. He said that 10,000 hours of trading is longer than it takes a body to replace its cells. Well, it takes a body 10 years to replace its cells. 10,000 trading hours can be achieved in about 6.15 years. Here is the math: One trading day has 6.5 hours. There's about 250 trading days in one year. 250 x 6.5 = 1,625 hours/year 10,000 hours / 1,625 hours per year = 6.15 years. Just 6 years to become a maestro of trading.
He said you've fucked yourself over and are beyond help. Oh and that bwolinsky is full of shit. Don't shoot the messenger!
Thanks so much for your input. ET has a cap on the # of characters and spaces in one slug of posting. I just stay under that limit by getting a count. If you go over it dissapears A lot of learners put in 10 hours a day and some work on weekends. 2,500 hours a year is my round number. In trading there is a myth about "full time" trading. No one who knows how to trade, has to trade each market day or any whole market day. What would be the point? My point was in reference to market capacity. You can only trade at five times the capacity by taking partial fills while carving the turns. My estimate of 40 to 60 days comes from the deep recognition of the routine a trader follows. CW follows a betting regime used by John Boyd to train fighter pilots. Their objective was to win dog fights; OODA was the routine. When a person begins to learn, he follows a routine that has no "chance" and instead only has "certainty. The OP did this when he learned to use a pencil to write in his first language. He was successful and completely differentiated in a matter of a month or so. This core successful experience came by following a routine. The routine was repeated daily in a group setting with a roving teacher. In trading, it is the same. Pencils are used and logging is done. A laptop is used and the volume and price are annotated. There is one pattern and an Order Of Events happens. Where we meet, a screen (52 inches) is on the wall. Any laptop is cabled to it. All computers are connected to a hub that allows a chart to be updated over the 300 seconds of each bar. I narrate the market events as the traders wish. They usually like 5 to 10 minutes ahead of the real market time. We do about 10 to 12 pages a day and put it into three ring binderrs. We enter as the market opens on bar 1. We trade up to the beginning of midday. In AZ, opening is 6:30 am. I happen to log and annotate all day so I can take the offer through the day up to about bar 78. Then I just log through bar 81. The group does a weekly add/delete on their stock Universe. We enter about 1 and 1/2 hours before price begins to move. We exit when volume no longer keeps up. This is crossover stock trading. The owned stocks maintain the highest money velocity.
I not only saved the logic; I converted it into a one pager. Years before the Worden test, it was posted here. So was the Universe selection process. The name of the process is called PVT. PVT stands for Position Vector Trading. The one pager was written in a matter of ninutes as someone typed it up for me using equations to make up the charts after I dictated the % of volume for each bar in the catenary graph at the bottom. Last a 400,000 sample of stocks was used to verify that the data I dictated was on the mark. To make it extremely simple, the parts of the trade were typed in unique solors for each part of the trade. This one pager has a title. It is: Unusual Volume. I also posted a P n L created by someone else (this is referred to as a third party). He made an ATS and the P n L is the ATS working. It shows trade hold length average and profit average. You may remember a person totally fucking up the PVT trading in several ways. He posted how he took 500K to about nothing doing 24,000 trades over five years and he did not have a Universe either nor did he use the proper exit. He was FOS and got mentally ill lurking. People who can read can compute his average loss on 100 shares. try it. Find out he lost a statistically insignificant amount of money. All he did was NOT do a test. He got statisitcally insignificant results and was not able to under stand this. One other neat aspect. zero of his trades lasted slong as a normal position trade; he always exited prematurely because of his fucked up exit design. "Where is the backtest, Jack?". Anyone can duplicate it if they wish or they can fuck it up as was done on ET by an airhead. What you do is use the NAZ 100 and the unusual volume page and run it for a year. Then you use any Sharpe equation and fill in the results. The equation will produce a result. read it. Thw question is not a queation to me, really. It is a question to you? Why can't you take the provided information and do the test with real data and real stocks? You told us. You don't trade stocks. The discussion on all of this was before you arrived at ET.
This is a very good and precise edit. It is good to see a person (The OP) go through what had to be avoided. The example is poingnant. He told of his misfortunes and how his mind got to a non differentiating state. He can't erase it. For anyone beginning, they have to accept the math the market uses. Boolean algebra. As said here its all one's and zero's.... In trading, "following" doesn't work. One of Covell's first sentences was "Seven gruelling years........ or such. See the altenative calc of 10,000 hours and add in wrting it down as quotes of others..... LOL.. you can stand right next to it and never learn a thing, covell so uneloquently proved.