First of all, speaking Quantitatively? There is no difference between "Investing" and "Trading". That's an argument that new retail traders quibble over. Quants know, there is no difference. Everything is an Investment, and everything is a trade. Second? Let's say you are correct. Ok. Great. So, let's say that you are correct and when I said: "The pensions with Mom and Dad's money in it, that I provide for. The 401k's that have people's wealth and savings they build over decades. That they take money from, go on vacation, help their kids out ... treat their cancer ... That machine doesn't need liquidity?" Well, first of all, I'm going to assume that you understand that Pensions put their money to work, with Investment Firms who short-term trade. I mean ... you do know that right? They may not have their money with an individual Asset Management firm like Dunn due to his higher Vol numbers (Or I should say ... their ... since Bill is since retired), but they definitely may have the retiree's money with a FoF who is nailing a Sharpe of 2.0, and that capital is allocated across two or three hundred different Asset Managers, many of whom are in trades for 3 to 18 days. I mean ... we do understand this, correct? So let's set that aside, and set aside the way the entire Asset Management Industry works. Let's say, that for some reason, people's 401k's are with Managers who are only in trades ... sorry ... "Investments" ... well ... what's the magic number that delineates "investment" from "trade"? Let's call it ... say ... 11 months? A year? Great. Well, when mister "Investor" Asset Manager goes to buy, let's say Microsoft for his 401k Client ... Uh, we do realize that needs liquidity ... right? Which means short-term traders tightening up the bid x ask by constant short-term trading activity, so that the "Investor" Asset Manager can scale his purchases across many price intervals as he slowly gets into his position through his ATS. And short-term traders tightening up the bid x ask by constant short-term trading activity ... is liquidity. So as I said ... the machine needs liquidity
Except with my Quant data (assuming that I correctly bypass the curve-fitting problem inherent to all data processing) ... I am not subject to the Apophenia bias, as are all chart traders.
so you are better than the millions of profitable chart traders out there! there are drawbacks with all types of analysis
if you are buying for 10 years you do not need much and do not forget a lot of the large deals are off market or out exchange deals
I actually agree with a few points in your post. Nobody is going to teach you something that works (really well) especially not in the retail "tradeucation" "industry" where I agree they're all practically fakes and on sim, or at best dumping their chatroom subscribers. And you listed one of the best examples with that schmuck Ross of WarriorTrading and he got caught lying about being having been an architect. Also Warrior's past spreadsheets they used to post (circa 2016-17) were all bogus. He reacted to the exposing review on tradingschools (https://www.tradingschools.org/reviews/warrior-trading/) and the comments by pretending to "recycle" his "trading" account every month or so to hide the losers and the fake statements posted and the use of multiple sim platforms and accounts in the chatroom. Maybe you ought to contribute or post on tradingschools.org.
So if they are purchasing the "Investment" from one of the myriads of exchanges, then how is the spread tightened enough so that my Firm is not screwed over with a wide spread of 35 ticks, as when I first started trading. When I first started ... spreads were so wide you could fit Moses and the Israelites through them. Ever look at a thin market? What happens to the spread ... without trading activity. If off exchange (Which was why I specifically mentioned ATS) ... then why should there be enough size for the Pool to even exist in the first place to get those blocks accomplished, unless the activity on the underlying to support the existence of the Pool. I mean, it's not like the Lumber has a WILDLY active ATS Block system, while the market itself is nearly dead. So let me get this straight ... it's your contention that markets do not need liquidity and tight spreads? Is that honestly your contention?
Glad to hear that guy got busted. Infuriated me listening to his ads before a YouTube video would play. Another one that causes me to see red and want to smash a bottle over his head, is that one guy "I'm the number one option trader, on the Planet". The arrogance of that BS claim is absolutely stunning.
It's all gambling. I've never believed it was clever to average 5% a year holding the index, where at one point in time within the last 20 years it was down nearly 50%. I guess people don't have many options when it comes to passive investing. I do allocate long-term to the index and REIT's, but more for strategy diversification.
Absolutely. With that you and I are an absolute agreement, especially myself, as I live in the world of risk-adjusted returns. I had not come out and say that yet specifically, because generally for some reason aspiring Traders have a problem psychologically ..... with understanding that fact. But yes, anytime you place money down on a risk event with an unknown future outcome? Even if you have probabilities winning in your favor, or an edge? I'm sorry, but that's gambling. And I have no problem with that. No difference than people who accept employment at a 9 to 5 job for a specific wage reward, on the risk that management will conduct the Affairs of the company in a diligent manner, as well as the risk that there won't be any conomic downturn which means their entire gamble of accepting employment? Will lose. That's what quantitative strategy architecture has taught me. All of life is a Gamble
Short of the downright illegal (like insider trading) - there is no singular "way" or method to make money consistently trading markets. I happen to prefer spread trading for client work because from my experience it tends to be more consistent over protracted periods of time with a wide range of personality types - but I will be the first to say that day trading and swing trading can also be consistent and profitable. And you can't buy your way into successful trading. Getting an MBA or Financial Engineering Minor won't make you a good trader. Taking a trading course or hiring a training consultant won't make you a good trader. I have seen proprietary trading firms train traders in classrooms on very specific trading systems (Goldenberg Heymeyer in Chicago) - and despite it all the successful cadets were very much in the minority. It takes hard work, an affinity for calculated risk, and some extent some "art". If it was strictly math - then every PhD in Math or Physics would be trading markets (and that is clearly not the case). Like all things in life - in takes capability and a tremendous investment in time and effort.