Dead Trader, you are not a loser. The market has a way to mess up your mind. I do feel your pain and I appreciate you for calling out the scammers for the newbies, and hence I am going to share my thoughts with you so that you can get into the right mindset in this journey. If you go to a casino and take out a strategy card at the blackjack table, you would be told to put that away because it could reduce the casino house edge. When you trade, no one will tell you to put away your strategy card. You can look at it and review it any time you want. The strategy card reduces your chance of losing when you lack discipline, and is one of the many things out there that can collectively give you an edge. The key to success is to be persistence in finding these "edges", and have the wisdom to discard bullshits. Trading is PhD- level hardwork, but if you have a passion for it, it is not that bad. PA
DeadTrader -- why did the stuff work when it worked, and fail when it failed? What made the market move in ways that tweaked "indicators" followed, and then (without apparent warning) work in ways that matched a whole *new* set of indicators? What if you relied on a set-up (that seems to last for hours) for only a few minutes? What if you entered a position where 2-3-4 triggers shouted the entrance, but then exited that position when any one of them whispered "Get out!" I know. I know: I just gave you a whole new set of conditions to code. Well, you didn't have anything else to do today, did you? Nooooo.
Buying and selling can be taught = basic gaming can be taught Profitable trading over long periods of time cannot be taught = competitive gaming at the highest level cannot be taught either Get your analogies right ROFLMAO
Very simple, A) stay informed on trading related technologies, data vendors, brokers B) entertainment, having a good laugh C) shooting at ill intentioned vendors Learning to trade? Are you fuxxing kidding me? The mechanics of trading I claim to know after almost 19 years in trading related positions, 13 of which at banks and hedge funds. New stuff on the quant side I pick up from specialists on tensorflow, pytorch and deep learning gurus. The stuff that can't be learned I benefit in my trading and pay the price in my somewhat unempathetic nature which does not always sit well with others. I can't change that. Are you here to learn? Learn what exactly?
Trading is simple and trading is complex. Yes price goes up. Price goes down. Prices goes sideways. Said another way price trends or price ranges. However, price is ALWAYS in a trend and it is ALWAYS in a range. At ALL times. Channels are tilted ranges..nothing else. You can have tight channels and broad channels. Tight channels are always breakouts. You can have mini BO’s and larger BO’s. Wedges..big and micro,...triangles and their variations, Double ..triple..cuadruple ..tops and bottons, BO’s failed BO’s, and such patterns ..ad nauseam..on and on...all appear in channels and trends because of PRESSURES exerted in the markets. They are not random. They are footprints of a struggle being fought. While they have tendencies in what they are saying they all fail at times. That is the nature of the markets. The market forces push and pull. Trying to force a move. Money is made in moves. One side wins and we get a BO. So you got all this stuff happening but what adds to mix is the environment in which it is all taking place. Known as the context. Wedge tops in a strong bull trend will fail one after the other. So folks say wedge tops don’t work. Same thing with all the other patterns. So, if you are gonna learn PA and how to trade it...bottom line you gotta learn this stuff and all the nuances. Then practice this stuff. Then trade this stuff. All this takes time. Certainly more than 2 years. The patterns work differently in different contexts. The context works differently in different patterns. Price is ALWAYS in a context. Price is ALWAYS in a pattern. Pressure is ALWAYS in the markets. Then you got the probabilities. The risk. The reward. All three connected to the myriad of context and patterns. How do you determine the three? Then you got initial determinations and actual outcomes. That is, initial risk..initial PT and actual risk and actual PT as a trade unfolds. Those affect probabilities of a trade reaching, surpassing, or failing to reach the PT. Initial market pressures are determined as best as possible by context and patterns. Actual pressures in a subsequent ongoing trade are also determined by the same things but can only asserted as the are being formed. A triangle is an important pattern. But “how” that triangle forms and the context in which it forms is just as important, if not more so, than the triangle itself. In assigning probabilities. So....you gotta understand this stuff.....it....trade it...to really learn it. If you are really gonna trade trade PA in all it’s opportunities it affords a trader..day after day...in all TF’s. You got have tool box of strategies and tactics. You got to know what tool (s) to use in any given context with it’s patterns. You gotta learn by experience the probabilities of a pattern being successful or failing. You also gotta know what it means when the unlikely happens instead of the anticipated. Anything can fail...anytime...in any market..and will do so. It can also succeed. Only experience can give an edge to assign probabilities of success vs failure. You gotta know what to do when it is successful and what to do when it fails. If a bull BO occurs and a trend start..reaches your PT but still shows strong bullish strength are you gonna exit just because it reached your assigned PT? Or are you hold your position let it keep running and ride it up some more? Finally..you can learn all this stuff..practice all this stuff..trade all this stuff.. but if you are not psychologically prepared for trading none of it will work well for you. No sir. Trading PA is more than grabbing a joy stick and playing a video game. ROFLMAO
You talked about the mechanics and yes that can a be learned, but that makes perhaps 20-30% of a profitable trader with consistent track record. All else is mental stamina and discipline that is in a person or not. Exactly the same with poker. Unless you are one of the very few, who are destined to be good at the mental skills poker requires, you will never become as good or better than the 5 guys out of 100 with the 100 not just being picked from the general population but among those who gave poker a serious try. No matter how many hundreds and thousands of hours you put into. Are you seriously trying to sell me the story that 95 out of 100 people on this forum did not put enough effort into trying to learn trading, that they basically did not learn hard enough, did not invest enough time? That is laughable given the tons of dinosaurs who hang around here and hardly make a dime (judging from their excitement about micro futures contracts or the like) I stand by my claim, mechanics of trading can be learned and taught. The rest cannot. Feel free to disagree. But you won't change my stance on this, I have just seen way enough in this industry, professionally and on the retail side to know what I need to believe and trust in.
Sounds like you are wiggling out...somewhat like the results of recent elections. Some just cannot except them...ROFL Profitable trading and competitive gaming can be learned. And teaching is part of that learning process. Whether self taught or taught by others. Writing cannot be learned and retained over long periods of time You learned to write at an early age (i assume) Therefore Soon you will soon be unable to write (i guess when you get like really.. really old)
Let's agree to disagree, the only one wiggling around here seems to be you. I made my example clear if you don't like it ignore it and move on.
Uh oh so now we got destiny thrown into the mix? You are either destined or not destined to be a trader? Glad to see you concede that the mechanics can be taught and learned. I couldn’t agree with you more on the psychological end of it. THAT IS PRECISELY WHERE MOST TRADERS FAIL. But I contend that too can be taught and learned. Psychological barriers can be overcome. But that too takes TIME..PRACTICE..EXPERIENCE. And more than two years I might add. A body can learn that certain psychological tendencies are destructive in trading. A body can learn about how to change those tendencies. A body can practice, and learn through practice and experience to discard bad habits based upon erroneous psychology (for trading, that is) and to develop new habits through practice and experience. This too takes time. The real question is are traders gonna put the time into it to correct the psychological shortcomings? And are they even gonna find the “way” to do so? But I contend a body can learn to use hope..fear..greed..despair..sadness..to their advantage in trading. It is a myth to think we can obliterate these emotions in trading. They are part and parcel with our humanity. You cannot become a trading machine. Judge Judy says she is a “truth machine.” In my opinion she perhaps just told her first untruth. We have to learn to redirect fear..greed..hope..and all the rest to develop and form new habits that are conducive to trading. To try and eliminate them is a colossal waste of time. And furthermore they cannot be coded. Too many variables. Algos are taking machines..trying to read and anticipate human emotions (to some degree) and postulate about them in anticipation of the future. Yes they can remove emotion from the traders equation but not from the markets equation. Fear in trading can be good or bad depending on the context. Hope can be good or bad. Even greed can be good or bad. It all depends on the context and immediate conditions. Example strong bear trend. Wedge bottoms forms. Trader is chomping at the bit waiting for a signal bar and setup to enter long. He gets both. He takes the plunge (pun intended) and goes long. Almost immediately his signal bar and setup fail and markets resumes strong bear trend. His wedge bottom..signal bar..and setup were nothing more than a bear flag. He best make haste and pay attention and FEAR for his capital and dump his position double up and go short (he will only have to see 1/2 distance to be back at BE). Man stands in road talking to buddies drinking a soda pop. Big 18 wheeler appears on the scene. Does he get out of the road double timing it? Depends on the context. If transfer truck is a mile away he can shoot the bull a bit longer before getting his rear end in gear and moving. If truck is half block away when he sees it he best make haste and depart roadway rather rapidly.