Then you should understand stochastic processes, Wiener processes and Ito's lemma. The challenge is the noise term usually dominates, but... It is OK to give up. Have a good day sir.
There is a legendary grain trader that was having million dollar days back in the 60's - he was still trading at 85. In his last interview he spoke about being a student of the market & still learning about himself as a trader. The hallmark of the great traders, always the student. Trading is not easy, it's a long hard road - you have to expect to fail before you succeed. Trading requires an unconditional persistence that very few have, not to mention a lot of disposable cash. Any advanced skill takes many years to get really good at it - to get to the expert level 10 years is probably the low bar. A beginner electrician or plumber for example is an apprentice their first 5 years, it takes them 7-10 years to be able to be able to pass the 'Master' licensing test. The few traders that carve out a decent living from it typically have 5-10+ years of experience - and there are some traders with 10+ years at it that are still not profitable.
No offense, but this post is even worse than your initial one in showing your ignorance about what it takes to be successful in trading. You have a host of people here who took the time to post to let know it's a skill that takes much time and effort to learn - yet you ignored all that and then jumped to baseless conclusion that trading successfully isn't possible for anyone. The truth is you have ultra unrealistic expectations about what it should take to learn about trading and you ignore advice from others that have put in much more time than you. Trading is NOT a simple computer game where you can get quickly get familiar with the game patterns. You're not trading a sim, you're trading live action and people don't act like bots running through identical patterns over and over. If you're such a "great" coder or game player, lets see how you stack up against champion e-sport game players that make their living by playing games. If games are so easy you should be able to also make a living by winning those champion gaming tournaments right? Better yet, write an algol AI that lets you play better than the top players. You demand to see proof of others trading success but no one here owes you anything and their profitability won't be affected one bit whether you believe them or not. If you had bothered to do your due diligence research before jumping headlong into trading, you wouldn't need to ask for a successful example of trading and would have discovered Renaissance Medallion fund - a quant fund that has earned double digit returns EVERY YEAR for DECADES. If the market is random, how are they achieving that? And no, they are NOT just making a 1% return like supposedly "everyone told you" was the case. If you don't believe you can succeed in trading, then you can try something else. It's a difficult field to master and few achieve it. But it's the height of egoism/narcissism to think that just because you weren't able to figure it out in a pittance time of 2 years then it can't be done and that anyone that claims to be successful must be lying. Don't be one of those people who feel the need to try to project their failures onto others.
You completely contradicted yourself. You berate the reference to computer games but then make a 180 and talk about competitive e-sports.... Actually the reference to computer games is a valid one, imo. Equal to a computer game anyone can quickly get into trading. The entry barriers are lower than in any other profession. The rules of engagement are easily understood and the complexities are almost absent. But to consistently win at a high level against other highly competitive players in the game and market alike, it requires a specific DNA makeup to start with, years of practice and hard work. Most will never be able to compete on such levels. A majority will blow out time and again and die and retry. A few understand they can't compete in this game and just invest long term, which is similar to someone playing a game with the difficulty level set to easy. And markets are near random, successful players understand this and found their edge and push that edge in the few times markets are inefficient. I think it does not take a beginner who gave up after 2 years to confirm that most on this site are not profitable traders and even many of those who claim they are, are not and never will be.
What I said isn't a contradiction. He stated learning to trade wasn't the same level as difficulty in learning a language- and more like a computer game that is "easier" to learn and comprehend all the basics. There are indeed computer games where this is true. My statement is pointing out trading is NOT like one of these relatively simple computer games than can be mastered quickly by looking for the obvious patterns. Then I referenced e-sports games to make it a more equivalent comparison to what trading is like. The fact is he is not likely to "master" an e-sport game to make money any easier than succeeding in trading. Knowing the rules of trading and how to open trades is the same as learning the rules of any game. That was not what the OP was referring to. I disagree on there being little/minimum complexities. Of course there are massive complexities- that's what determines people who play for fun and people who play well enough to earn a living. The OP did not pay others to learn how to trade to learn about the "rules" - he wanted to get help on the complexities. Knowing how to play well is the at the heart of mastering the complexities of the game. The OP is NOT saying trading is hard and not many will succeed. He's now saying it's just not possible for anyone. Using the OP's logic, if he isn't able to play a game at the level of e-sports champions, then no one is and they must be cheating or lying. Incorrect. By mathematical definition, it's a 0/1 situation- either the market is random or it isn't. There is no such thing as "partial" or "near" random. He is not saying "most". Re-read his latest post I responded to. He is now saying that trading successfully is impossible to ALL, and that anyone claiming otherwise MUST be lying, simply because he isn't able to do it and doesn't personally know anyone who can. Even if he spent 10 years coming to that conclusion he'd be wrong- to make such an illogical conclusion in just 2 years of part time research makes his assessment look that much worse.
Being a data scientist or a great coder does not make you a profitable trader. You either have to be a genius or lucky and requires lots of hard work to discover a system that's profitable. It's like lottery, you have to bet on it everyday (research) and someday, if you are lucky, you will hit the jackpot (found the system). The longer you try, the greater your chance of discovering the system. If you are just average or above average intelligence, it's very very difficult to be profitable. If that's not the case, any average Joe could be profitable. There's a reason why scientists, economists, academics, researchers, lecturers and PHDs are not rich and couldn't make money from the market. They usually think they are smart, but they are actually not. I have gone through the phases that you have gone through. You should never give up. The key here is, start looking at other variables. Don't continue looking into something that you have found to have no edge. I can assure you, there is a way to be consistently profitable, but I will not tell you. I hope this will at least keep you going.
You are kidding right? Trading is not easy to learn? There is up, down, sideways. Trending, mean-reverting. Continuous vs jumps. Dividends, interest rate math (7th grade level math), discounting future cash flow valuations. Sorry but anyone who does not comprehend that should probably work at Mac Donald's. Trading is as simple as a simple computer game. I always laugh when I hear some guys talk about the market as if there was anything complex to it. It's utterly ridiculous. Why do you think some of the stupidest people on earth are drawn to trading like flies to a pile of shit? It's because it's as simple as it gets. And because the barriers of entry are virtually absent. And the lure of money. Trading is not about complexities or difficult environments. It's up down or sideways. Trading is all about patience at some time, and quick acting in the face of a loss at other times, it's all about mental capacity and the ability to tune out feelings. Stop attaching any complexities to this industry. And you get again hung up on issues that are not there but you read into them due to his poor English. Obviously he cannot mean that NOBODY can be successful at trading. If he indeed meant that you should not even waste your precious time on him as he is clearly contradicted (not by anyone at ET, mind you). It can only be completely random or not random at all? Says who? Link to reference please. Because in my many years as student of advanced measure theory and probabilistic concepts I have not come across such statement. But let me prove you wrong with a simple example: imagine a price function that is driven by a stochastic component and also a deterministic component. If you understand both terms just mentioned then you know already that your claim is bogus. And by the way, I did not even talk about whether markets are either completely random or not at all random. I stated that markets are most of the times following a highly random path and very few times are markets inefficient.
Lucky? Well, good luck trying. Data scientists and economists and academics are rich in comparison to the money in the pocket of most here on this site (ny own estimate). This is not about luck or trying. This is about applying a rigorous set of mental discipline. That is all there is to it. But most will never get this simple truth in their life time.
please see my statement for yesterday's trading...in my journal "rewind back 15 years". it took me 12 years to understand to put it all together. I never was training or studying to be profitable.....i dreamt and trained for 12 years, of being perfect, of being able to trade in any type of market conditions and still have a win rate of 100%. yesterday i had one losing trade so i am still not there but i had a return of just over 100%. ps decided to post my statement here
in a game, no one is trying to trick you, no one is feeding wrong and useless information. if it is like a console game.... why are you not profitable.... why are you giving up