Almost everyone is lying. Because there's no such...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DeadTrader, May 6, 2019.

  1. Hi

    I'm a coder and data scientist. I have been working on trading for over 2 years. Spent lots of money. Every trainer i have paid lies. Because, there's no profitable system. If there's, nobody will teach you what it's. Trading is a zero-sum game. Your odds are same in Vegas. There's no such profitable trading system.

    For example:

    ForexSignals - Andrew Lockwood
    He claims he's trader but i have never seen his real account. He make money by selling products.

    Warrior Trading - Ross Cameron
    Ross claims he made $500 to $100K in 45 days or so. He has a new challenge and he claims he made 1 million but it took years. If he could make $500 - $100K, why not keep doing the same? If you can not trade with a lot of money, you can still trade with $500. All he teaches is how to trade flag breakouts.

    Warrior Trading - Steve Dahl
    Steve Dahl is a showman. He claims he's trading. He never shows his statements. He says something like it's against the rules. All he's doing is, marketing his product TAS Market profile. His stoploss is like 250 - 350. Not for every trader. He trades trades futures (!).

    ----

    And here are some so called profitable strategies...

    Order Flow Trading
    There's no such thing. You can see supply and demand (support / resistance). However, price is never overbought or oversold. Price is always right. There are anomalies but they are not easy to see. There's 50% probability that S/R will be broken or bounce. You can never know if someone going to click on the market buy/sell button.

    Price Action
    Even my random chart generator does have price action. It's all random and there are trends...

    High Probability Chart Patterns
    Nope! HS, engulf, pin bar... All of them tested. Your chance is still less than 50%

    Trading Algos
    They are not fake and profitable until they become losers. Most of profitable algos risk 4 or more to get 1. One day, they will lose all the money

    Backtesting #1
    I have coded a random trade simulator. This script enters a trade randomly. 1:1 RRR and traded more than 10.000 (simulated). However, system never but never won more than 49%. (no spread or commissions calculated). You can say, if there's 50% probability, how come system can not win %50? Of course it can not win. We have stop-loss at the same range. Sometimes, market stops us and goes back to target.

    Backtesting #2
    I have created a simple moving average strategy and put the script in a loop to find the best matched values. After a few hours, i had enough data and plots. However, i strongly believe that, winning algos will lose by time. Everything changes. They worked in the past and it doesn't necessarily means that it's going to work in the future.

    ---

    Market is always right. It goes, where it wants to. We can never know the future. Some says, we don't know or predict future. We see and trade "now". It's not true. "Now" is the future. All you see is the historical data. Our brain is used to perceive positive things. That's why it looks so easy. It's not!

    There's no scientific study that proves trading is profitable. Come on guys. Really? Don't you think that there are profs trying to find some scientific evidence? Don't tell me about momentum. It's all luck... That's it.

    ---

    Everyone says aim for 1%-2% return per month. Lol! How can you trade for living? Assuming that you need at least 3-4K per month. So you simply need 300-400K account to make 3-4K per month.

    I know there are trainers here. Please stop stealing peoples dreams. Most of you claim that your course is not get rich quick scheme but it's. You are advertising like it's.

    ---

    Nobody can have 50% win rate with 1:2 RRR consistently. I'm almost sure about that. Here's the simulations i have done.

    Initial balance: 10K,

    Risk 1%, win-rate: 50%, rrr: 2, simulated 500 trades (~2 per day)
    Results: 114509.51, 77677.79, 92915.19, 241527.18 etc...
    if Risk is 2% result is something like 2,513,901.02... x250 in a year!

    Risk 1%, win-rate: 40%, rrr: 2, simulated 500 trades (~2 per day)
    Results: 42756.02, 34693.05, 23534.11, 36827.51

    If you have a system 1:2 rrr system and your win rate is 50%, you are lying or you are lying. Because we both know that you don't have such thing.

    -----

    Now why am i writing all these? Because i have started to find some patterns 2 years ago with hope. I was almost sure that i could do this. Hundreds of times, i tought i became millionaire. But there were always bug in the system. Failed tens of hundreds of times. Most of my trades stopped by a few ticks only or missed by a few ticks.

    I'm working on this for 2 years and i have nothing left. It's like addiction. I know i will not be able to profitable but i'm still on it. Even if i can find a profitable strategy i will not be able to trade because no more balance left to trade. Actually I have found one. But it's all historical... It worked last 10 years and i doubt it will work tomorrow.

    I know i know, most of you will call me loser and get mad at me. You are right. I'm a loser. I accept in advance and still love you. This is just my opinions. Like everyone says, these are not financial advice :)

    Now i can go in peace...
     
  2. Try using a volatility based stop.

    This is the kind of stuff @fan27 and @morganpbrown are doing. Look into their threads.
    Correct, this is why people trade other people's money.

    Yes sir.

    Looks like you need to take a break. The market will still be here when you're done.

    I box for a workout and without changing anything but coming back after a weekend break, I get better. There is something there. My brain solves the problems in the background.

    Hugs to you bro.
     
  3. Robert Morse

    Robert Morse Sponsor

    You're not a loser. You tried but did not find your way. Losers are those that never give their dream a chance. Don't be so hard on yourself.

    Cheers,
    Bob
     
  4. themickey

    themickey

    Statistically the majority lose, however it depends, long term smart investors probably have the highest success, those trading forex intraday possibly the least and work the hardest.
    Generalizing, if the majority lose it's because they haven't cracked it.
    The minority who win do so with more ease and reap larger proportional gains.
    Investing/trading stocks is not zero sum, whereas futures and fx is.
    Once you crossover, it becomes a new world.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. Hooti

    Hooti

    Are you done with trading? At least for the present? Or looking for a different way to approach it?
     
  6. dozu888

    dozu888

    actually - giving up asap is a very wise move... generally speaking trading is a waste of time.

    however...

    - it should be kinda obvious that all the vendors sell bs;
    - take the goldman sachs trading division for e.g.... these guys are profitable for how many years in a row.. this is why i keep saying - stop looking for market inefficiencies aka free lunches... but start looking for stories... my pro boys at GS they do this all the time, and their actions leave a trail of bread crumbs that you should be able to use to figure out what their plans are, then you just tag along on their side.

    but that being said, it may still take too long to 'get it' and worth your time, it may still be better to just give up.... get some job that is more productive to the society and more fulfilling to yourself.

    'provide liquidity' my ass, this is no contribution to the society... don't fool yourself lol.
     
    jys78 likes this.
  7. qlai

    qlai

    Wow in two years you have disproved so many methods where each may take that long or longer to learn. You are simply walking the path ... Trying to find your niche ... we've all walked (walking) it.
    Reading your assessments of different styles and methods it strikes me how confident you are in your conclusions ... I think you are approaching trading like coding ... That's very common of programmers and scientists.
    f8c2b14d6aeef3d4036eb55409c8920f.jpg
     
    Scataphagos, schweiz, userque and 6 others like this.
  8. This was what stood out to me too.
     
    schweiz and qlai like this.
  9. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    I wonder who taught you your coding and data scientist (mining) skills ???

    Also, what markets did you test your coding/programs on ???

    wrbtrader
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. i made 5mm in two days of trading es500 futures at member clearing rates, my max risk was 330k which happened the first 2 hours of the first day. but i am not selling anything but i will tell you i got the ideas for the method from perry kaufman's book smarter trading.
     
    #10     May 6, 2019