No one asked for a review of Allen's performance. You see Allen's performance is a "stand-up" performance. He trades in real time in front of a "live" audience. Allen can't even sing out his trades to his screaming fans (in his superb voice) he must type them. In addition he has to execute his own orders, and explain what he's doing. Allen deserves an Emmy, and all reviewer's can stick their thumbs somewhere else.
I enjoy reading Allen's journal (though I trade stock only). I think that Samba's illustration and Allen's follow up post are very helpful in seeing a bigger picture of his method's financial worthiness.
I have been a member of Allen's room for the period in question and can say that he is very conservative about what calls get into the record. By that, I mean that in the last year, I have seen, maybe, 5 to 10 calls that could not be taken by a person with average skill and an average platform. It is obvious when this happens and every time that I have seen it, Allen has asked who got the trade and if there were several who tried but but were unable to get a fill, then Allen did not count the trade. And he would ask immediately, not later, after he saw which way the trade was going. So, in my opinion, his record is absolutely honest and easily duplicated by pretty much anyone who takes the calls. His style is to make the call several minutes before the trade is triggered, so it is up to you to take it or not. As for his performance, it is there to see, both in real time in the chat room and after the fact on the web site, and it is real. That is rare in trading. At least for any extended period of time. I know, there are posts like "Wohoo, I made 10 big ones today - if you didn't, you got no business calling yourself a trader ..." but I don't think anyone pays attention to those. I do agree that the Q's may not be the best vehicle for his style - the nq is better for me. And paraphrasing what someone else posted on this board in another tread "YA GOTTA TRADE SIZE". If you can do that, then the commissions are less of a concern. But, if the worst you can say is, trading small lots with relatively large commissions has only made about 100%/year, then that is a good start - but I do agree that there is little margin when trading small size (because of commisison). If your performance slips just a little, it would make a big difference in your bottom line. I would not expect Allen's style to appeal to everyone, but it is very viable and the results are there for all to see and evaluate for themselves. I wish that traders' IRS records were public information - I'll bet that would be real interesting.
Today I expected to be more choppy than it was due to the bank holiday and wide ranges of the past couple of days. Volume was light and the early range was a little wide for my taste and I think that took a lot of steam out of the market. Regardless, I played the way I felt was best and ended the day with little to show for it. Trades Trade 1 - 10:59 Short 886 Exit 893 -7 Trade 2 - 12:37 Short 903 Exit 896 +7 Trade 3 - 14:32 Short 896 Exit 898 -2 Day Net -2 Week Net -2 Month Net +47 Trade 1 - The wide early range caused a lot of consolidation and took quite some time to break. I have a general rule of not trading after 10:00 until that range is broken. I broke that rule to take this trade and almost immediately regretted it. Rule are there for a reason and I rarely break them. here I did and paid the price. Trade 2 - 5minute pivot short following a break of the 30min range. This is a typical trade for me and worked pretty much textbook except for the fact it took 68 minutes to complete. Trade 3 - This is a setup I dont use very often because it relies on a very tight range that is not over the lunch period. This was the break of a NR7, ( term used generally with daily charts but I have adjusted for 60 and 120 min charts to offer setups ) it also ended up being a break of a 60minute IRB ( inside range bar ) and I had good confidence n this trade. Volume was light and the market was fairly strong and was able to hold moving average support of the 30min20sma so I ended up trailing the stop and exiting for a small loss. A day I was not expecting and market gave me exactly what I expected. AllenZ
Let me start by saying I dont care much for big gaps, unless they are out of a a base or off of a low. there are only really 3 things that can happen off of a gap like today. 1. Gap and reverse. 2. Gap and run. 3. Gap and do nothing. ( By far the most frustrating ) Anyway, I began looking at every timeframe for the ES and NQ to try and come up with a game plan. I felt the best course of action was to short the open. When I short against a big up gap I have a plan. From what I have seen they are rarely able to run more than 6-8 points without some initial pullback. My plan was to get short 4 points from the open with a 6 point stop from there. After that I figured I would know a lot about the day by the time I made my second trade, which was definitely going to be a play of the 30min range break. These thoughts were basically my game plan for the day and I shared this info with the room. After the first 3 trades of the day displayed the junk we were in for, I decided a long lunch break was best course of action. Trades Trade 1 - 9:33 Short 948 (954) Exit 944 +4 (938) 27min Trade 2 - 10:07 Short 938 (948) Exit 942 -4 (936) 22min Trade 3 - 10:37 Long 943 (935) Exit 939 -4 (946) 24min Trade 4 - 14:01 Short 944 (951) Exit 944 +0 (938) 80min Day Net -4* Week Net -6 Month Net +43 I thought it might be interesting to add a couple things to my entry/exit posts for you guys to see and comment on. First parenthesis is initial stop placed. Second one is best price in my favor the trade saw. And finally is the amount of time in the trade. *All net totals are without commission. Trade 1 - Short 4 points from the open, a play I will do on big gap days I dont trust. This trade had a target of 929ish where the 5am bar opened. Traded to a +10 area I moved the stop to go for the big trade and it hit my trailing stop. Great freakin entry so I wanted to squeeze the juice and ended up with a very small glass. Trade 2 - Break of 30min range. Went short on the break and adjusted the stop faster than usual. I would usually let this trade fail or hit the target but playing against the gap and with the strong ES I tightened the stop faster than normal. Did not matter, hit my trailing stop and never went lower than 936. Trade 3 - Went long as a pattern failure setup against the 30min break. Also, a bullflag if you really look at it as I entered on the first 15min pivot, not long after my stop was hit on the breakdown attempt. Took a small stop on this and came to the conclusion that day was going to be junk. These two trades when taken one after the other only fail on days that turn out to be junk. Trade 4 - This was a perfect entry plain and simple, just look at the timing. We broke to a new high at 950 then moved to 940 once we broke 940.50 ( prior hour low ) I want to be short. We oversold on my shorter timeframes so I waited for a retracement entry, I wanted 945 but I did not think that would be an easy entry so I looked for 944. Once we hit 940 I placed the entry to short at 944. This went to 938 I moved the stop to 948 just to give it enough room with divergent ES. Then it moved back to 940 and I was at my mental breaking point ( usually 60minutes from trade entry ). I moved the stop to 944 and got hit. Called it a day. I can say with great confidence that I had awesome entries today outside of possibly Trade #2. Somedays the market is not there, nothing you can do but recognize it and move on. I am expecting to have a couple good days the rest of the week as the 2 prior days have been junk for me and that usually means things are about to turn in favor of my setups. AllenZ
I am enjoying doing this journal and I hope some of you are enjoying it. Aside from charts, if there is anything I can add please let me know. A journal is a tough thing to do on such a large message board. I am used to trading in public via the chatroom so it does not bother me to have people see my trades, even after the fact setups and all. I look for approximately 75-100 points a month. Very achievable most months ( summer was tough ). So far this month I am +43 and on track to achieve my goals. Anyway just a thought and an update. Please let me know if the new additions to the journal are helpful or confusing. AllenZ
Good stuff Allen. Too bad this market makes its moves overnight. Oh well, thats the breaks. Enjoy your journal.
Was wondering if you still call QQQ in your room or is it just NQ nowdays?... And why not a QQQ journal?