anyone know what the alltime high on zb or zn are? i mean shorting here what is the potential loss historically? (allthough i know this may be unprecedented shit but i think it is going to be unprecedented on the bearish side for the bond market, not bullish anymore) dm
yeah i know zb was 124ish in july i think, but is this the all-time high though? what about during the depression the first time around, i mean i know we might not have had futures then but what was the low yield on a 30 year historically? i mean can it realistically hit 3%? or 2.5%? dm
1) They got up to ~135 in 1998. That was the 8% coupon contract. 2) Since then, the high has been ~124. That's the current 6% coupon contract. 3) It's really tough to go higher because very few people would settle for such low current yields for a longer-term duration.
that is what i was thinking and i started my tbt short at bad timing (64ish near the top of last bounce) i'll prolly start adding on if it breaks through 50 sometime in the next few days- inflation will bring this house down, it's inevitable
You can't define your risk by looking at the all-time high in ZB/ZN, because there is nothing that says new all-time highs cannot be made *much* higher than the prior record. Also you need to focus on yield, not price, to get any idea of the maximum upside. US treasuries once yielded about 1.4% in the early 1940s at the tail-end of the Great Depression. Japanese Government Bonds a few years ago reached a yield of 0.5% and a price of 145. Plug those yields into a bond price calculator and you get some idea how high things could go.
Cutten, Thank you for your always interesting and instructful posts. Do you happen to know why October is the preferred month of the year for market crashes? just curious.
thx this is what i was looking for i can do those calc's myself i just couldn't figure out those historical numbers- still an easy short from here as long as you are just starting and have a nice time frame. i'll be slowly getting into TBT so that i can profit incredibly from the bond market collapse that is overdue with all of these stresses. it may take a few more years but it is coming and we'll see sub 50 handle