I'm serious. I thought this was a bull market. The asian sessions are killing the carry trade, Japan, Aussie. Hong Kong of course perpetually excluded. Is this all about $88 oil? Even with the blowout tech earnings tonight, lot of selling pressure on the index futs. Media tries to spin bank news as bearish, but I'm not sure I get it. Last 2 weeks, tons of bad news (probably less so), but the aura of invisibility from the FOMC halo seemed to cure all. I understand pressure on currency trades and US dollar buying ahead of G7, but aren't we supposed to be in an inflation spiral driving prices of assets (equities, commodities) out of control? S&Ps are anemic at best. God my NZD was murdered in the last 24 hrs.
Follow the money is what I was always told. So maybe there is some fund profit taking by the masses that is exerting the pressure on this dead bull. I did see some comments today that it isn't just subprime anymore. Prime loans are now going into default en-mass. Not sure if this is over-stretched foreclosures or smart money that put little down, walking away rather than take the valuation loss. Probably a little of both.
Crude is the bull market now, so are soybeans, gold as well, and the au naturale may be the next, but before too long I think it will be best to be short all of the above, and every index future to boot! Markets can only ignore the writing on the wall for so long; the fundamentals clearly don't support current oil prices or stock market valuations, and when it starts falling I think it all will go down in a blaze of glory. As I see it, a nasty correction is in order.
Soybeans and wheat have been rangebound (hell wheat has been a bear the last month) lately. I don't know if I agree with you on fundamentals not supporting oil prices though [at least to $60 or so, i mean] -- we aren't the only consumers of oil anymore.
I think it's a bit naive to expect moves to go one way forever. Markets are allowed to rest, consolidation is no anomaly, it's actually a very healthy symptom during an uptrend. This market has so much backup and the technicals are so strong, especially on the Nasdaq that before the shorts can say "oops" it will create once again, another monster short squeeze and naturally all the lemmings will start shouting "Buy the dips" after the fact. Anek