All market gains since 1993 have occurred after hours

Discussion in 'Trading' started by krugman25, Apr 13, 2019.

  1. %%
    OK, that word ''all'' threw me[ ''all market gains'']
     
    #71     Apr 14, 2019
    krugman25 likes this.
  2. krugman25

    krugman25 Guest

    So I am sure some astute traders have figured out that blindly trading every overnight session doesn't work, and have found certain market conditions where it is more reliable (i.e. "an edge"), which generates more reliable overnight gains woth far less trading volume (and by extension less commissions and fees). And here we are, back to the main purpose of the thread, to see if anyone has and is willing to discuss and present data (hopefully).
     
    #72     Apr 14, 2019
  3. %%
    Makes a lot of sense.IF market opened + closed ''all' the time @ same price , 'all'' would want to daytrade, or most would, except the super size whales
     
    #73     Apr 14, 2019
  4. krugman25

    krugman25 Guest

    All simply means a traditional buy and hold strategy over the 25 year period as the baseline of the study.
     
    #74     Apr 14, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. I just proved it's not true using my own data and the numbers I supplied in that post.
     
    #75     Apr 14, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.
  6. krugman25

    krugman25 Guest

    Your test has squat to do with the post. #1 this is a 25 year test, not 6. #2, you looked at whether the market closed up or down but not by how much. I didn't know that trading gains were binary based on market close (sarc). I thought if you had two up sessions of 1% and one down day of -20%, you would be down -18%.

    According to your study, the market is actually up because there were 2 up days and 1 down day. That's just stupid.

    Reread the first post slowely, the study is % gains , not up and down days.
     
    #76     Apr 14, 2019
    Timetwister likes this.
  7. comagnum

    comagnum

    Because the markets are much more interconnected these days - globalization & computer driven programs using the futures market to adjust in real-time to new data from the larger GDP countries. Big players typically buy & sell in baskets which have overseas instruments.

    Just like when we have a strong day in the U.S. market there is often buying in Asia & Europe as well. Or if say China has a big down move during their regular session on economic data there is typically a sell off on the U.S. & Europe markets when they open.

    Some smart traders cash in on this effect in the futures market.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2019
    #77     Apr 14, 2019
    krugman25 likes this.
  8. How likely do you think it is that an "astute trader" is going to reveal anything material about their edges on a public internet forum?
     
    #78     Apr 14, 2019
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  9. You're the one who should re-read things slowly (not slowely) and start doing your own research instead of trusting articles you clearly don't understand. :)
     
    #79     Apr 14, 2019
  10. I think that will prove just as difficult as trying to pin down the just 20 days during the last 20 years that have generated the entire market return above the risk free rate.
     
    #80     Apr 14, 2019
    murray t turtle and krugman25 like this.